Among the submissions is a new analysis of the four proposed Net-Zero Framework (NZF) MARPOL Convention amendment options currently on the table at the IMO. The work evaluates each option against the emissions reduction goals set out in the IMO’s 2023 GHG Strategy, creating a just and equitable transition and promoting shipping’s energy transition. It also examines trade-offs between environmental performance, cost impacts, and revenue generation.
The key finding is that the ‘levy-based’ framework is most likely to deliver the IMO’s 2030 and 2040 emissions reduction checkpoints. This option proposes using fixed financial penalties for vessels not complying with emissions standards, and only subsidizing operators using zero, or near-zero, fuels and technologies.
However, the analysis also highlights that another of the options, which proposes keeping the Net-Zero framework in its current form, could offer the lowest average carbon abatement cost among the pricing-based options, provided significant increases in biofuel prices are avoided before 2038.
The analysis uses the most up-to-date modeling undertaken by University College London (UCL)’s Energy Institute Shipping and Oceans Research Group and the Rocky Mountain Institute.
Commenting on the new study, Dr. Tristan Smith, Professor of Energy and Transport at UCL’s Energy Institute and head of the IMarEST IMO GHG delegation, said: “This is the first study to model the specifics of all four proposals side-by-side, building on the assumptions and methods used in the IMO’s own Comprehensive Impact Assessment of mid-term measures.
“As negotiations intensify ahead of MEPC 85 at the end of the year, we are hopeful our analysis will help guide IMO member states to a workable solution for the Net-Zero Framework.”
As discussions progress, the IMarEST is also launching an industry consultation to gather professional views on the effectiveness of current IMO GHG measures and the potential practical implications of developing net-zero policies for the maritime sector.
Alasdair Wishart, Director of Technical and Policy at the IMarEST, said: “As negotiations move into a crucial phase, we also want to hear from the wider maritime community. By bringing together the views of engineers, scientists, and technologists, we can help ensure the Institute’s contributions at the IMO continue to reflect our sector’s expertise and experience.”
The consultation is available on the IMarEST website and will remain open until September 16, 2026. Responses are invited from individuals and organizations with a stake in maritime decarbonization. Participants may complete the consultation in full or respond only to sections relevant to their area of expertise.
