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Global Maritime Consultancy & Engineering, a provider of marine warranty, dynamic positioning and engineering services to the offshore sector, has established a Technical Authority Board to be led by Alberto Morandi, formerly head of Global Maritime Americas.

The Technical Authority Board will promote excellence throughout Global Maritime, ensuring consistent and high-quality technical standards. Each board member, who will be nominated for a two-year term, will have specific knowledge in one of the following disciplines - marine operations, structural engineering, naval architecture, dynamic positioning (DP) assurance, marine systems, risk, insurance and mooring.

9GlobalMaritime Alberto MorandiAlberto Morandi, Chair of the Technical Advisory Board

Board members will also be responsible for defining the competency requirements for their specific disciplines and will be encouraged to become external industry experts through participation in expert panels, speaking engagements and the writing of technical papers.

David Sutton, CEO of Global Maritime Consultancy & Engineering, said: “Our technical competencies are the backbone of Global Maritime and we are lucky to have so many leading technical authorities in the company. The new Technical Authority Board led by Alberto will help nurture this, providing a pathway to promoting technical excellence inside and outside Global Maritime and ensuring that our technical standards are not only consistent but the most up to date and relevant to our work.”

Alberto Morandi, the new Chair of the Technical Advisory Board continued: “Global Maritime is a company characterized not only by practical experience, operational excellence and safety but also by the very best in innovation and technical knowledge. I’m delighted to have the opportunity to make sure that this knowledge permeates everything we do, with the end result being value-added solutions that help our customers achieve their business goals.”

Alberto has been at Global Maritime for over 17 years where he has held a number of senior positions in Houston, London and Rio de Janeiro, including Advanced Structural Analysis Consultant, Vice President of Engineering, President of American Global Maritime Inc. and Group Managing Director for the Americas.

Alberto has a PhD from the University of Glasgow in Reliability of Marine Structures and an MSc in Naval Architecture from the University of São Paulo. Alberto is also a Chartered Engineer in the UK and a Professional Engineer in the State of Texas, contributing to technical committees and developing international standards and industry practices.

13DWMondayLNG technology evolved as a solution to the problem of transporting large quantities of gas over long distances. Developments in the market over the next five years are expected to have a significant impact on both the construction of LNG carriers and the primary LNG trading routes.

The LNG carrier market is currently over-supplied. A combination of low commodity prices and a reduction in imports from key consumers such as Japan (following the re-start of its nuclear power stations), has resulted in a substantial decline in charter rates for LNG carriers to approximately $25,000 a day – considerably below typical breakeven costs of $40,000. We note that 36 carriers were delivered in 2015, and only four newbuilds having been ordered in 2016 at the time of writing.

However, this trend is expected to change over the 2017-2021 period, due predominantly to liquefaction projects expected onstream in Australasia and North America. Notably, the USA is forecast to increase its LNG export capacity from 11mmtpa in 2016 to 77mmtpa by 2021. In the World LNG Market Forecast Report 2017-2021, DW forecasts the delivery of over 150 units yet to be ordered over the 2017-2021 period, in addition to the current order book, in order to satisfy this additional supply.

With the USA on track to be become one of the world’s largest exporters of LNG, this will result in a diversification of the primary trade routes for LNG transportation. Notably, the expansion of the Panama Canal enables it to accommodate larger LNG tankers, and also provides a means for vessels travelling to Asia and South America from the Gulf Coast to reduce their voyage times. This is ultimately expected to introduce greater competition to LNG trading routes.

Katy Smith, Douglas-Westwood London

1OilRigs KevinThe National Oceanography Centre (NOC) has launched a new collaborative way of working with the oil and gas industry. NOC will provide innovative science and technology to enable industry to work safely and efficiently, with minimum impact on the marine environment.

The launch comes off the back of many years of working with the industry on both an individual and collaborative basis, to develop science and technology to enhance competitive advantage, maximize investment and reduce operational costs during exploration, production and decommissioning. NOC has unique expertise in marine autonomous and robotic systems and sensors, for operations in challenging, hazardous and deep-sea environments. NOC’s fleet of Autonomous Underwater Vehicles, Remotely Operated Vehicles, Unmanned Surface Vehicles and submarine gliders have all been developed to operate in extreme conditions. NOC’s science teams have had many years of experience in testing and demonstrating the capabilities of our autonomous platforms and sensors, in such hazardous environments.

NOC Associate Director, Innovation and Enterprise, Kevin Forshaw commented “Building on our existing relationships, we are hoping that this offer will encourage more oil and gas companies to develop long-term relationships with us, as we believe there are benefits to be gained on both sides. With the many challenges facing the industry, companies are recognizing the value of novel science and technology, to create real business value. By accessing external funding opportunities and joint-industry funding, companies are benefiting from responsive and flexible innovations to drive down operational costs, maximize existing investments, access and share innovation expertise, and respond to government fiscal and environmental regulations.”

The collaboration package is an annual subscription which includes access to efficient, authoritative and rigorous science research services, responsive to the industry’s needs, expert interpretation of valuable data-sets, access to software and data-products and alerts for public funding opportunities. Collaborators will also have Associate Membership of the NOC’s Marine Robotics Innovation Centre.

For more information about this project, the NOGIC website can be found here.

4Mermaid NusantaraMermaid Maritime Public Company Limited (“Mermaid”) announces that Mermaid’s Eastern Hemisphere business unit, through its subsidiary Seascape Surveys (“Seascape”), has been awarded two additional subsea contracts in South East Asia with a total estimated potential contract value of USD 5.1 million.

The first package of work involves the DP2 Dive Support Vessel ‘Mermaid Nusantara’ together with heavy duty work-class ROVs for a 30 day project in the Natuna Sea, Indonesia, carrying out installation activities directly for an international upstream oil and gas company. The work on this first package is scheduled to start no later than the first quarter of 2017. The second package is to provide survey and inspection services to a third party diving vessel for approximately 45 days working in Malaysian territorial waters. The work on this second package has already started.

Mermaid Nusantara. Photo credit: Mermaid Maritime

Mermaid also wishes to announce that Mermaid’s Western Hemisphere business unit has been awarded a one (1) month work extension by a major EPC contractor in the Middle East for its DP2 Dive Support Vessel ‘Mermaid Endurer’, together with an additional standalone saturation diving support work equipment and services. The awarded extension has an estimated potential contract value of USD 1.8 million and has already commenced.

Mermaid’s contract win announcements as published from time to time on SGXNet are not exhaustive as Mermaid continues to be awarded other smaller contracts from time to time in the ordinary course of business which are added to its order book.

Financial Effects

Assuming that the contracts had commenced and had been completed within the most recent financial year (the Company’s last financial year ended 31 December 2015), the contracts would have had a non-material effect on the earnings per share of the Company (on a consolidated basis) and a non-material effect on the net tangible assets per share of the Company (on a consolidated basis) for that financial year.

Interest of Directors and Controlling Shareholders

None of the directors or controlling shareholders of the Company has any interest, direct, or indirect, in the contracts. There are also no new directors proposed to be appointed to the Company in connection with the contracts.

10ChetMorristonlogoChet Morrison Contractors’ Deepwater Riser Services division recently completed work on a complex deepwater riser maintenance project for an offshore drilling rig that included complete disassembly, blast, paint and reassembly of 57 risers.

By partnering with the Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) on the project, Chet Morrison Contractors was able to deliver key services that allowed for an OEM-recertification on the risers. In addition, by taking advantage of Chet Morrison Contractors’ available shop space and labor capacity, the OEM was able to provide the rig owner with a turn-key solution at a competitive price. This coordination allowed the two companies to maximize their respective resources and areas of expertise for the overall benefit of the client and project.

“We see this as a great example of how Chet Morrison Contractors is able to work effectively with other partners to deliver custom solutions for clients,” said John DeBlieux, Vice President of Deepwater Riser Services. “It is also important to note this project was delivered two weeks ahead of schedule. By combining resources, we were able to offer enhanced value that saved time and money.”

The OEM project lead, Wesley Barnett, stated, “as the OEM, we were very pleased with the overall attention to detail, product knowledge and quality that Chet Morrison Contractors displayed during the entirety of the project.”

Along with the teardown and reassembly of the risers, Chet Morrison Contractors also repaired 15 floatation modules, assisted the OEM with auxiliary line pin and box repairs, conducted hydro/pressure testing of all completed lines and successfully removed stuck set screws from 22 lifting lugs.

Chet Morrison Contractors’ Deepwater Riser Services performs comprehensive services throughout the life cycle of the riser, including inspections or repairs that traditionally require manufacturer support, along with superior safe-harbor storage and maintenance facilities at multiple locations with convenient access to the Gulf.

14DanoslogoDanos’ Amelia-based custom fabrication yard recently completed the interconnect piping and production deck extension for a client’s deepwater platform in the Gulf of Mexico. The deck’s installation was the culmination of a two-year process in which Danos worked closely with the client to design and fabricate the 165-ton, fully-integrated production deck extension.

“This project is a great example of how our integrated line of services benefits our customers,” said Mark Danos, vice president of project services. “We’re proud to have met or exceeded every delivery fabrication milestone with zero recordable safety incidents.”

Several Danos service lines supported the project, including fabrication, project management, automation, scaffolding, construction and coatings. In addition to the deck structure, 550 pipe spools were fabricated, with more than 100 installed on the extension. The automated services division supplied panel fabrication, while the project management team coordinated the planning and support of the workpack.

Following the installation and completion of the project, the customer recognized Danos for achieving “Quad Zero.” This means that throughout the 100,000 project man-hours, the company logged zero recordable safety incidents, zero lost time, zero work days and zero motor vehicle accidents.

2 1Anadarko LogoAnadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: APC) announced on Monday, September 12, it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire the deepwater Gulf of Mexico assets of Freeport McMoRan Oil & Gas for $2.0 billion. The transaction, effective Aug. 1, 2016, is expected to close prior to year end.

2 2freeport"This immediately accretive, bolt-on transaction strengthens our industry-leading position in the Gulf of Mexico and is a catalyst for the company's oil-growth objectives, with quality assets being acquired at an attractive price to create significant value," said Anadarko Chairman, President and CEO Al Walker. "We expect these acquired assets to generate substantial free cash flow,(1) enhancing our ability to increase U.S. onshore activity in the Delaware and DJ basins. Our current plans are to add two rigs in each play later this year, and to increase activity further thereafter, with an expectation of more than doubling our production to at least 600,000 BOE per day collectively from these two basins over the next five years. This increased activity would drive a company-wide 10- to 12-percent compounded annual growth rate in oil volumes over the same time horizon in a $50 to $60 oil-price environment, while investing within cash flows. Additionally, the transaction expands Anadarko's infrastructure in the Gulf, adds to our unmatched inventory of low-cost, subsea tieback opportunities, and bolsters optionality with new exploration prospects. The company's Gulf of Mexico position, with the addition of these properties, will have net sales volumes of approximately 155,000 BOE per day, comprised of approximately 85-percent oil."

DOUBLING OWNERSHIP IN LUCIUS

Anadarko's operated Lucius facility in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico continues to achieve strong reservoir performance and facility productivity. As a result of this performance, the company is increasing the estimated ultimate recovery of the field to more than 400 million BOE from the previous 300-plus million BOE. Additionally, gross oil sales volumes through the facility recently surpassed 100,000 barrels of oil per day (BOPD). Under the terms of the transaction, Anadarko will increase its working interest in Lucius to approximately 49 percent from its previous 23.8-percent ownership, enabling the company to further capitalize on additional future value-adding opportunities at Lucius.

ATTRACTIVE ACQUISITION METRICS

The acquisition and development cost of the acquired properties, excluding a total of approximately $300 million of materials inventory and seismic, is approximately $13.50 per BOE for the estimated proved reserves to be acquired. The assets are being acquired at an estimated EBITDAX multiple(1)(2) of 1.5 for the expected sales volumes over the coming 12 months, using the current futures strip price for oil and natural gas. Please see the supplemental information available here for additional details on the transaction.

GUIDANCE

Upon closing, the transaction is expected to add approximately 80,000 BOE per day to Anadarko's sales-volume guidance – more than 80 percent of which is comprised of oil. The company also is expected to increase its 2016 full-year capital guidance, not including the acquisition, to a range of $2.8 to $3.0 billion, primarily reflecting the increased activity in the Delaware and DJ basins.

Jefferies Group LLC and Latham & Watkins LLP are serving as advisors to Anadarko on the acquisition.

 

Subsea 7 S.A. (the Group) (Oslo Børs: SUBC, ADR: SUBCY) announced on Tuesday, September 13, 2016, together with Det norske oljeselskap and Aker Solutions, the formation of an alliance.

6Subsea7 Detnorske Contract signing 03 2Subsea 7: Monica Th. Bjørkmann, Vice President Sales and Marketing, North Sea and Canada Aker Solutions: Geir Glømmi SVP Subsea Norway Det norske: Olav Henriksen SVP Projects. Photo courtesy: Det norske

The alliance combines Det norske's exploration and production know-how with Subsea 7's capabilities in the engineering, procurement, installation and commissioning of subsea umbilicals, risers and flowlines (SURF) and Aker Solutions' expertise in front end engineering, brownfield modifications and subsea systems. It will enable the operator and suppliers to work as one integrated team to find the most cost-effective solutions for developing Det norske's entire Norwegian subsea field portfolio.

The companies will form an integrated project management team with experts from each. This will enable continuity from one field development to another and facilitate a reuse of solutions and technology that will lower costs, reduce development time and promote safe and more efficient work methods amid a focus on continuous improvement. All parties share both risks and rewards.

The alliance accord comes after Det norske in June announced a four-year framework agreement with Subsea 7 for SURF services and with Aker Solutions to provide subsea production systems and services for the operator's oil and gas developments in Norway. The scope of these framework contracts has a potential value of about NOK 2.8 billion, of which approximately NOK 2 billion is Subsea 7's share and NOK 800 million is Aker Solutions' portion.

Chief Executive Officer Jean Cahuzac of Subsea 7 said "This is an innovative way of collaborating with an operator and another supplier, working together as one integrated team across developments will promote greater sharing of knowledge and best practices."

11MacGregorjpgMacGregor, part of Cargotec, has won comprehensive equipment package contracts for a variety of seven specialist support vessels that will operate in the Middle East region. MacGregor will deliver deck cranes and a range of deck machinery to each vessel. The order is booked into the third quarter 2016 order intake.

"These orders are a good demonstration of MacGregor's ability to deliver a one-stop-shop solution, using products from across our range of market-leading brands. All backed-up by good global aftersales and service support," says Esko Karvonen, Head of Smart Ocean Technology division, MacGregor. "We are often approached to supply specific equipment on board a vessel, but packages of equipment always prove to be the most beneficial solution to the owner."

MacGregor will deliver: a deck crane and deck machinery, shark-jaws and towing pins to two 58m anchor handling tug supply (AHTS) vessels; deck machinery and a deck crane to one 45m work utility vessel; and a deck crane and deck machinery to four 45m maintenance utility vessels. MacGregor equipment deliveries are planned for the first quarter of 2017.

"MacGregor worked closely with the owner early in the process to discuss technicalities," Mr. Karvonen continues. "This early involvement optimizes design decisions, which can positively influence the profitability, safety, reliability and environmental sustainability of operations throughout a vessel's working life. We will continue this close cooperation with the customer."

The vessels will be built in China for a leading provider of marine logistics services in Middle East. They are planned for delivery in the third quarter of 2017 and will support the operations of a Middle Eastern National Oil Company in the Arabian Gulf under a firmed five-year charter with a two-year extension option.

15 1QuestOffshore15 2CALASH LOGO pcQuest Offshore Consulting links venture with Calash Ltd. to assist the expansion of its services to the USA, with the opening of offices in both Houston and New York City. A Calash/Quest Consulting combination will offer enhanced services to US based private equity, debt, and wider investment community, with a focus on strategic due diligence across the energy sector, targeted at the US onshore and offshore oilfield service and E&P markets. The Houston and New York offices build upon Calash's current locations in Aberdeen, London, and Sydney.

Quest Offshore Consulting is dedicated to strategic due diligence services related to mergers and acquisitions working with major financial clients globally including a focus on U.S. private equity. Quest also provides customized analysis to help Energy businesses, government agencies and other groups make strategic data-driven decisions led by both qualitative and quantitative research. Quest Consulting's industry expertise and wide array of knowledgeable contacts across the supply chain will continue to serve as key assets for the new venture.

Calash is an award winning energy advisory firm providing strategy, business advisory, data analytics, and M&A support services. The company provides services to Investors & Lenders, Executive Management, Corporate Finance and Other Advisors, having completed over 500 projects across the energy sector globally. Calash is comprised of a team of energy industry experts that have deep practical experience of owning and working in service and E&P companies, running day to day operations and growing business value within the energy sector.

The expansion into the USA market will enhance Calash's strategic and business advisory consulting services in the US market, allowing Calash to provide services including restructuring support, market entry strategy, asset valuation, and commercial and operational support.

Quest Offshore Consulting is enthusiastic to join Calash, LLC to expand our strategic service offering across The Americas and provide an established beach head to the collaborative venture from Quest's corporate office in Houston (Sugar Land) along with integral support to the New York City office where we can provide enhanced services to our growing client base of financial firms.-Paul Hillegeist, President & COO Quest Offshore Resources, Inc.

"Over 80% of our existing clients have operations in the USA. Calash's expansion into this key energy market reinforces our objective to support our clients globally, ensuring we provide relevant, cost effective services" - Alan Evett, Founder and Group Managing Director of Calash.

Calash, LLC (the US trade name) is a partnership between Calash Ltd. and Quest Offshore Consulting, LLC. a division of Quest Offshore Resources, Inc., Calash is a strategic consulting and transaction support advisory firm and its long association with Quest makes this move a natural extension for Calash.

3maersk gallant printMaersk Drilling has been awarded a contract for the jack-up rig Mærsk Gallant with Maersk Oil. The contract covers the plugging and abandonment of the Leadon and James subsea fields in the UK sector of the North Sea. The duration of the contract is estimated to 230 days, with commencement in February 2017. The estimated contract value is USD 24m.

“Despite an extremely challenging market, I am glad to say that Maersk Drilling is still able to secure new contracts for our rigs. By focusing on operational excellence and technical problem solving, we strive to always be a trusted and value-adding partner for our customers,” says Michael Reimer, Head of Global Sales in Maersk Drilling and continues.

“Maersk Drilling has extensive experience with plugging and abandonment operations, and we are looking forward to working closely together with Maersk Oil to safely decommission the two subsea fields, Leadon and James.”

Mærsk Gallant is about to complete its current contract with Total E&P Norge A/S. The rig is designed for year-round operation in the North Sea, in water depths up to 120 m (394 ft) with an available leg length below hull of 138.5 m (454 ft). The rig is fully equipped for high pressure/high temperature drilling (HP/HT).

Endeavor Management announces that it has opened participation in its latest Joint Industry Project (JIP) – Best Practices for the FPSO Industry.

In today’s price environment, understanding the best practices for managing, designing and executing projects is essential. On FPSOs this need is critical due to the numerous interfaces, contractual boundaries, and challenging regulatory, flag state and class requirements. Understanding the best practices in these areas should lead to streamlined projects with a stronger chance of achieving success.

7Endeavor FPSOPhoto credit: SBM Offshore

This JIP proposes to utilize Endeavor’s Expert Advisory Group to gather information from each of the participants, evaluate that information, develop and propose metrics, hold lessons‐‐‐learned sessions to rate practices and achieve alignment on the best practices, and then to document this effort for participants.

The Issues to be examined include:

  • Strategic Decisions
  • Project Delivery
  • Mooring and Offloading
  • Hull Design
  • Process Module Design
  • Vapor Recovery, Gas and Water Treating
  • Startup and End of Project
  • Operational Considerations

Endeavor proposes to conduct this JIP on a representative cross section of the stakeholder segments involved in delivering an FPSO: Oil and Gas Operators, leased FPSO providers, Shipyards / Fabricators, Engineering Companies, and Class Organizations. Ideally at least 2 to 3 players from each of these groups would become Member Companies. Collaboration on best practices across this industry cross section should yield significant improvements in alignment and the opportunity to reduce costs.

Bruce Crager, Executive Vice President of Endeavor Management, stated, “The challenges facing FPSO owners, operators, and contractors are significant in the present environment. With this JIP we expect to find the best approaches to building and operating existing and future FPSOs.”

View the JIP proposal

Endeavor Management is an international strategic advisory firm headquartered in Houston, Texas. Endeavor collaboratively works with their clients to accelerate growth by creating a deep understanding of customers and engaging client’s employees in executing strategic transformation. Endeavor has a 40-year history working with clients that span the globe and are leaders in their industry.

12PIRALogoLarge U.S. Product Build
Overall commercial stocks built by 6 million barrels for the latest week, as products led the way gaining about 7.1 million barrels. Distillate inventory added a quite large 4.6 million barrels as reported demand showed a big decline from the previous week. Total product demand dropped from the prior week falling around 1.1 MMB/D to 20.2 MMB/D. Key products are expected to experience stock draws next week led by distillate’s 1.7 million barrels decline. Crude runs are expected to continue falling as the turnaround season commences.
 
Southern Europe Pricing is Being Rewritten this 3Q
Southwestern Europe has been fed an array of problems recently that are rewriting how gas is priced in the region. Gas pricing in Southern France has traditionally traded versus spreads to Northern France. Recently, we’ve seen a dislocation due to physical constraints that not only indicate a potential shift, but reminds us that regional pricing does not have to mean national pricing.
 
Continued Hot Weather Stresses Generation
Most Eastern markets recorded strong gains in On-peak prices in August due to a combination of higher cooling demand and unplanned outages. Generator outages at St. Clair (MISO), Millstone (New England) and Watts Bar 2 (SERC) being a few cases. Loads in the East and ERCOT combined rose by 5.1% year-on-year (21.5 aGW) in August as cooling degree days increased by nearly 27%. PIRA continues to be bullish winter 2016-17 fuel prices due to stronger demand year-on-year and concerns about near term supply.
 
A Neutral Shift in 2017
While natural gas and eastern coal forwards have firmed recently, PIRA sees increasing signs that coal markets will tighten through this coming winter, but then face a subsequent deflation as natural gas prices ease during the latter half of next year.
 
EU ETS Sees Declining Power Emissions, No Clarity on Policy Support
Declining power emissions and rising auction supply suggest limited EUA price gains. An EU Parliamentary committee may propose stronger post-2020 market reforms, but PIRA is not assuming additional policy support absent a better sense of whether an ambitious proposal can actually be passed. An expected higher energy efficiency target provides a bearish policy signal. With modest price gains expected for thermal fuels this year, even a higher correlation with oil and gas prices may not provide much support for EUAs.
 
Cash Basis in Flux
Cash markets saw some wild swings last week as harvest gets rolling while the action in futures was pretty mundane. “Quick ship” premiums for new crop soybeans stretched to almost a $1.00 difference as compared to just a few weeks down the line. Farmers as far north as DeKalb, Illinois jumped on the opportunity if their early-planted beans were ready to go. Midweek saw a dramatic drop in CIF basis as the early week response filled immediate needs.
 
Global Equities Ease on the Week
Global equities were again lower on the week. The U.S. market did relatively well and was little changed. Technology led in performance, followed by utilities. Energy was the weakest of the tracking indices. Internationally, China performed the best, up modestly, while Latin America and Europe were the weakest.
 
U.S. Propane Prices Climb Higher
U.S. propane prices shrugged of a rather large two million barrel U.S. C3 inventory build, and embraced seasonality instead, gaining 1.7% to settle just below 50¢/gal (October futures) equating to a stronger 49% of WTI. PIRA’s forecast is for propane to price at 51% of WTI in October.
 
U.S. Ethanol Prices Continued to Rally the Week Ending September 9
Margins remain near the highest level in over six weeks. RIN values rose. Japanese Runs Dropped, Imports Declined and Stocks Drew Runs dropped sharply due to higher downtime, both planned and unplanned. Runs will continue declining through much of the month. Crude imports moved sufficiently lower to induce a 1.05 MMBbl crude stock draw. Finished product stocks built 1.6 MMBbls, with about half being in the jet-kero complex. Refining margins continue to improve from abysmal levels. On the week, all the major cracks posted gains.
 
September Fundamentals Buck Seasonal Trend
The market’s latest rally, supported by a one-two punch of stronger-than-expected pipeline deliveries to Sabine Pass and a seasonally substantial CDD count, will be tested by the inevitable acceleration in refills as underscored by yesterday’s reported relatively stout build. Yet, this month’s more constructive fundamentals that finally lowered PIRA’s end-October outlook more decidedly toward 3.9 TCF, should set the stage for another sustained price advance that bucks traditional seasonal trends.
 
UK Power Prices Skyrocket…And It's Not Even Winter Yet
U.K. power prices have been on a rollercoaster ride, with hourly spot prices reaching a multi-year high of £999/MWh on the evening of September 15, while accepted prices on the balancing market have been as high as £1,500/MWh in the last few days. Higher plant unavailability, coupled with low wind output, is now bringing to fore reliability concerns, which will be underpinning power generator margins in the upcoming months. Dark spreads have also widened to a point that may start to encourage more units to come back online.
 
Price Rally Resumes on China Heat, Tight Prompt Physical Market
The accord on raising China's coal production was not able to completely quell the upward momentum on seaborne coal prices this week, with sizeable gains shown for all three major forward curves. The prompt market is fairly tight, even in the Atlantic Basin, with limited availability of Colombian cargoes, high demand in China and rain-constrained output in Indonesia keeping the Pacific Basin market tight. Once the back of the winter is broken, this short-term tightness will ease. This is reflected in the steeper backwardation in current market forwards. PIRA believes that the current tightness in the market simply cannot last much longer and that the market is overly pessimistic regarding 2017 prices.
 
Washington State Joins the Club of Carbon Pricing States
Washington State has finalized its regulatory program to reduce GHG emissions in the state, with compliance to start in 2017 – even as the November elections and ballot initiatives can lead to significant changes. Unable to implement a typical cap and trade program, the policy design allows for compliance through different instruments, including those from out of state programs. Initial reduction requirements are low – and it is expected that there will be enough available low cost WA-eligible RECs and other supply to minimize/eliminate demand for California Carbon allowances.
 
Inflation Expectations Rise
The S&P 500 was only modestly changed on the week. Volatility, after rising early in the week, settled back and ended the week lower. High yield and emerging market debt, however, sold off in price. The dollar was generally stronger, while commodities were slightly lower. The Cleveland Fed released their inflation estimates for September, which showed a second consecutive monthly increase across all the major maturities.
 
Stocks Fall to the Lowest Level of the Year the Week Ending September 9
Ethanol output increased by 6 MB/D to 1,004 MB/D, breaking a string of three consecutive weekly declines. Ethanol-blended gasoline manufacture fell to a nine-week low 9,142 MB/D.
 
Harvest Slowed by Weekend Rains
A relatively light weekend as far as the number of harvest reports received although the theme of below 2014 corn yields and very impressive soybean yields continued. Six Iowa reports averaged 7.5 bpa better than last year in soybeans while one Illinois report was an astounding 17 bpa better than last year’s 57 bpa in the EC part of the state. Corn yields in Illinois remain 5-10 bpa below 2014.
 
Asian Demand Growth: Reversal of the Slowdown is Imminent
PIRA's latest update of major country Asian product demand shows a continued slowdown in growth. Our latest assessment of growth is now 483 MB/D versus year-ago. It is worth noting that there was improved growth in gasoline and gasoil/diesel demand, which should be a harbinger of things to come. In our assessment last month we pointed out that growth would pick up in 4Q, fairly significantly. That expectation is still on track. We estimate Asian demand growth bottomed in August. When September and October data begin to roll in, demand growth will begin to move noticeably higher.
 
Bulgarian Gas Prices on the Rise
Bulgargaz has proposed to increase natural gas price for consumers by 3.4% for the fourth quarter of 2016. The proposed increase, which will be first since the beginning of the year, is due to the expected higher prices of gas supplies in the fourth quarter and the weaker Bulgarian lev. Bulgargaz submitted a formal proposal for the increase to the Bulgarian water and energy regulator KEVR on September 10.
 
California Carbon Awaiting Emissions Data, Legal Rulings
Benchmark contract prices moved up to average $12.85 in August, above the auction reserve price. Trading volumes remain weak and open interest is down year-on-year, though call options were actively traded. The August auction was undersubscribed, with a low coverage ratio. Continued undersubscription in November could see allowances moved to the Reserve, leaving less supply for compliance. Concerns over the validity of the auctions and also the cap and trade program post-2020 linger. Near term emissions data releases and court developments regarding the auction litigation can move the market.
 
Vehicle Sales in U.S. and China Remain Key to Growth
Growth in vehicle sales has played an important role in the U.S.’s economic recovery over the last seven years. Worrisomely, however, there are indications that the vehicle sector may have begun to run out of breath. One sign is a sharp rise in the amount of auto loan outstanding, and another is the recent behavior of used car prices in the CPI data. In China, growth in industrial production accelerated during August, with large gains in auto production playing a role. Recent data on Chinese car sales corroborated the findings from gasoline demand statistics.
 
Measures of Reserves Becoming Increasingly Less Relevant to Forecasting Future Production
Oil resources and reserves can be developed into production and as a result the industry has followed these numbers closely as a guide to the source and volume of future production. However, common measures of the resource base have always had limited value in predicting future production growth. We are now at a point where essentially ALL of the future non-OPEC crude production growth to 2035 is seen as coming from sources that either were not in the resource base as little as 10 years ago (shale) or were not in US EIA's proved reserves 10-15 years ago (Orinoco and oil sands).
 
Costs to Produce and Replace Oil Supplies are About to Bottom
The current low oil price environment has made it cheaper to operate existing oil fields and to develop new supplies. Since 2014, the worldwide Brent Equivalent costs to operate current supplies have decreased by around 13% while full-cycle costs to develop new supplies have been reduced by 28% for U.S. shale and 16% for non-shale developments worldwide. However, in spite of these reductions, many new projects (deep water, Canadian oil sands) still require Brent prices well above $50/Bbl to become profitable. The ongoing rebalancing of oil markets points to inevitably higher crude prices which will increase operator profitability. However, historically, when oil prices increase so do costs and hence cost deflation is probably about to be over. We are likely to see cost increases starting in 2017 although they will not necessarily be uniform across oil plays.
 
Counter Balancing in Counter Seasonal Markets
The counter-seasonal buying patterns of countries in South America, the Mideast, and Asia have taken on much greater prominence this year. Both the US and Australia have ramped up export volumes, effectively leaving the market with even more volumes to absorb in the second and third quarters when global LNG demand is at a seasonal low.
 
Chinese Refiners Adapt to Structural Changes and Rising Competition in the Downstream Sector
The structural reforms occurring in the Chinese economy are leading to somewhat slower overall oil demand growth. But more pronounced is the shift to more rapid growth in light products and slower growth or even declines in gasoil and some heavier products. These changing trends are having their impact on the Chinese refining industry. In particular, Chinese refiners have increased gasoline yields and imported large amounts of mixed aromatics for blending into gasoline, and decreased yields for slower growing products. Also, as oil demand growth for refined products has slowed, this has led to an effective capacity surplus. Part of the solution will be to increase exports, rationalize inefficient capacity, and slow down new projects. The recent changes in China policy to grant crude import and product export quotas to independent refineries will move the industry in that direction by creating more competition among Chinese refiners and will remove inefficient refining capacity.

The information above is part of PIRA Energy Group's weekly Energy Market Recap - which alerts readers to PIRA’s current analysis of energy markets around the world as well as the key economic and political factors driving those markets.

The International Marine Contractors Association (IMCA) welcomes the news that the Ballast Water Management (BWM) Convention enters into force on 8 September 2017, and has produced a 12-point information sheet on the Convention for its members. The BWM Convention aims to stop the spread of potentially invasive aquatic species in ships’ ballast water. It was Finland’s accession on 8 September this year that triggered the entry into force of the Convention in a year’s time.

Under the Convention’s terms, ships will be required to manage their ballast water to remove, render harmless, or avoid the uptake or discharge of aquatic organisms and pathogens within ballast water and sediments.

16IMCA Benzie Richard comprIMCA’s Technical Director, Richard Benzie

“This is a significant environmental development, which provides certainty with regard to a definite implementation date,” says IMCA’s Technical Director, Richard Benzie.

“IMCA and its industry partners have expressed concerns that type approval procedures for ballast water management systems need to be practical and that flag and port state administrations must be capable of implementing the requirements of the Convention. This is something that IMO Member States will consider in October, during the next session of the IMO Marine Environment Protection committee (MEPC 70). At this session, all parties need to finalise the G8 Type Approval Guidelines in order to facilitate a workable implementation of the BWM Convention.”

The 12-point information note (IMCAM 09/16) covers:

• What is the Ballast Water Management Convention?
• When will the Convention enter force?
• Will it affect me?
• Will I have grandfather rights for existing chips?
• How much time do I have?
• What will I need to do?
• Do I need to fit a ballast water treatment system to all of my ships?
• Does a ballast water treatment system need to be approved?
• Will there be any surveys or inspections?
• What else do I need to know about selecting and installing a ballast water treatment system?
• My ship is American or operates in United States of America waters, do I need to know anything else?
• What should I do next? – with six useful answers

4Trelleborgs boat landing systems in situTrelleborg’s engineered products operation has launched a new maintenance service for Boat Landing Systems (BLS). The new service is designed to identify degradation in BLS performance before it has the potential to cause damage to an offshore platform and a berthing vessel’s structural integrity, which can result in huge costs and downtime.

Often utilized for projects in remote locations, it’s imperative that BLS are robust and reliable. Trelleborg’s new maintenance service includes an annual survey designed to check the BLS for cracks on the rubber surface, de-bonding, permanent deformation and corrosion. With this thorough analysis, Trelleborg can identify degradation in performance before it could become a problem for the platform.

JP Chia, Engineering Manager within Trelleborg’s engineered products operation, says: “BLS come under general inspection during routine maintenance schedules of the entire platform, a task that is usually carried out by a maintenance contractor. However, if not surveyed accurately, cracks on the rubber surface of the Eccentric Bumper Ring (EBR), de-bonding of the rubber and pipe, deformation and / or corrosion can go undetected, potentially resulting in costly remedial repair and even replacement of the BLS.

“Offshore platform operators and contractors can reduce the degradation risks often associated with boat landing systems by working directly with an experienced product manufacturer. By doing this, contactors and operators can be sure the BLS in situ is reliable, tailored to the demands they are likely to face and importantly, perform for the long-term. After all, no one knows the product like a manufacturer.”

Trelleborg’s expertly trained engineers will conduct the BLS maintenance survey on an annual basis to identify areas of weakness and potential wear and tear. From best practice design, manufacture and testing, to full in-life support, Trelleborg can help to establish and implement a best practice maintenance regime tailored to BLS requirements. With an expert knowledge of Boat Landing Systems, Trelleborg offers an unrivalled in-depth understanding about the product, ensuring that extra eye for detail, ideal during maintenance surveys. In addition, should the product need to be repaired or replaced, Trelleborg can supply the most suitable solution on a project-by-project basis.

Trelleborg’s engineered products operation designs, manufactures and tests its BLS to the highest of standards. Based in the company’s laboratory for full-scale research and development is its test press – the largest in the world of its type, with a load capacity of 18,300 metric tons and weighing in at 600 tons.

Additionally, Trelleborg formulates unique polymers for each project’s shock cells in-house. Total transparency and an unrivalled understanding of materials technology is integral to every product made.

To discover more about the BLS maintenance service of Trelleborg’s engineered products operation, download the ‘Boat Landing Systems: Maintenance Service’ brochure:

8Scour TiresAward-winning technology developed in the east of England is to be presented as a cost-saving solution for North Sea decommissioning at a major industry conference in Scotland this week.

Scour Prevention Systems will showcase how its patented scour prevention mats using end-of-life tires offer alterative effective protection for decommissioning oil and gas pipelines to delegates at this week’s Decommissioning: Technology Innovation Platform event hosted by Decom North Sea and the Oil and Gas Innovation Centre.

The company, based at OrbisEnergy, Lowestoft, is one of 10 companies chosen to present technology that has the potential to help companies achieve the 35% decommissioning cost reduction targeted by the Oil and Gas Authority (OGA).

Speakers at Thursday’s event at Aker Solutions’ building in Dyce, Aberdeen, include Colette Cohen, chief executive of the Oil and Gas Technology Centre, and Jim Christie, OGA head of decommissioning. Scour Prevention Systems’ John Best and Alistair Punt will explain to delegates the potential savings of tire mats compared to traditional methods such as concrete mattresses or rock armor.

They take less time to install, have no threat of pipeline damage and need no direct remedial works. Furthermore, with an increasing number of cables of offshore wind being installed, the mats provide an effective crossing bridge at an interface with a decommissioned pipeline, they will tell delegates.

“Our aim is to raise awareness that our product is out there as a proven, market-ready and cost effective solution to be considered when people planning decommissioning are evaluating solutions,” said Mr. Best. “Our technology of matrices of recycled vehicle tires has proved to be very successful and is something we believe potential users need to be made aware of so they have a wider choice.”

“When pipelines are being decommissioned, our mats’ design helps to reinstate seabed cover and leave the pipeline secure and protected in a non-obtrusive manner.”

“The product effectively stabilize the seabed over pipelines forming a secure protective layer, protecting the pipeline from exposure and damage, providing a cost effective and easy-to-install solution to pipeline decommissioning.

The mats have been trialed and successfully demonstrated in the North Sea and used to remediate and prevent further scour around offshore wind foundations, and protecting telecoms cables subsea infrastructure.

Lightweight and modular, they require one-off installation without divers or trenching and provide a smooth contour created by the unique properties of the patented design. The mats also protect the pipeline from dragged anchors, fishing equipment and hydrodynamic forces.

Scour Prevention Systems have developed their effective product range, consulting with industry, clients and with assistance from research bodies including expert advice from the Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult. They also secured a SCORE grant to help it take its technology to the next phase two years ago and support the development of appropriate lifting and decommissioning procedures

A new £6m SCORE program launched earlier this year at OrbisEnergy will help companies develop their innovations.

The tire mat invention was a previous winner of the East of England Energy Group’s (EEEGR) Innovation Award.

Mr. Best, a former EEEGR CEO, said: “I am particularly delighted that, in my previous role with EEEGR, Scour Prevention Systems’ mats was an innovation award winner and seeing it moving forward into the industrial deployment is particularly exciting.”

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