NYC-based PIRA Energy Group reports that Brent crude prices have stayed strong this month. On the week, U.S. products draw while crude stocks build, while in Japan crude stocks jumped. Specifically, PIRA’s analysis of the oil market fundamentals has revealed the following:
Brent Prices Strong This Month
Brent crude prices have stayed strong this month supported by relatively tight global supply-demand balances and low inventories but will trend lower later this quarter as refinery maintenance cuts crude demand, crude supply continues its unrelenting growth in the United States, and supply disruptions elsewhere directionally ease.
U.S. Products Draw While Crude Stocks Build
Surprisingly low crude runs were largely responsible for the first crude inventory increase in eight weeks. They also contributed to a larger product stock draw versus the week earlier. A reported demand increase and increased product imports were also factors in the week-on-week product stock change. This past week's overall inventory change was 1.3 million barrels larger than the inventory decline for the same week last year, thereby widening the year-on-year stock deficit. U.S. commercial oil inventories are declining significantly this January and this has happened just once in the last ten years.
Another Jump In Japanese Crude Stocks
Another relatively high crude import rate produced a crude stock build on slightly lower runs. Modestly higher stock builds were registered on all the major products (mogas, gasoil, naphtha, jet, and fuel oil), though kerosene stocks drew seasonally. Margins were slightly softer with weaker light product cracks overshadowing higher fuel oil cracks.
U.S. Propane Is Continuing To Exert Price Leadership
U.S. Propane is continuing to exert price leadership although developments in the mid-continent are certainly in a state of disequilibrium given high demand for tight supplies. The wide gap to the Gulf Coast is certainly encouraging flows north with the price level leading to demand destruction.
Ethanol Prices and Margins Decline
U.S. ethanol prices resumed their downward trend the week ending January 17 as improving weather in the Midwest led to higher operating rates and reduced transportation problems. Manufacturing cash margins fell as a result of the decrease in ethanol and co-product values.
China Quarterly Oil Demand Monitor
China’s apparent oil demand disappointed in 2013, as growth slowed meaningfully from 2012. Reasons for the slowing were not immediately apparent. The pace of GDP growth did not change between the two years, and physical indicators that can directly be tied to oil demand (such as vehicle sales, ethylene production, and air travel) recorded healthy increases last year. Looking to 2014, the key story for China is an ongoing push for structural reform.
The information above is part of PIRA Energy Group's weekly Energy Market Recap, which alerts readers to PIRA’s current analysis of energy markets around the world as well as the key economic and political factors driving those markets.
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Liftboats have come a long way. Since breaking out of the Gulf of Mexico the global fleet of these self-propelled, self-elevating vessels has grown by over a third and now stands at more than 300 units worldwide. They are now tried and trusted in West Africa, the Persian Gulf and the North Sea. In South East Asia, they are finally gaining a foothold with key operators. Unlike immobile jack-up barges, liftboats offer more, typically performing well intervention, maintenance and installation workscopes. They are now being used for offshore EOR campaigns and we would not be surprised to see a growth in such deployments. The concept is also making a big impact in the offshore wind turbine installation business.
Here at DW, we have been monitoring the oil and gas liftboat markets and as a conservative forecast, we expect the demand for liftboats outside the Gulf of Mexico to increase by more than 3,500 days over 2014-2018. A number of factors will contribute to this, the two most important being their improved specifications and the increased recognition from operators of the value liftboats represent.
With the latest generation of liftboats offering increased water depth capabilities they are able to access an increasing proportion of existing fixed platforms. The increased deck space they offer enables them to carry more equipment, such as coiled tubing or chemicals for well intervention work – here their value is underlined by Halliburton's decision to invest in a fleet of five for its Gulf of Mexico slickline services. But arguably the biggest factor behind the increase in demand will be the attitude of E&P operators who are renowned for their conservatism; their aim in the race for new approaches is usually to finish second. However, despite this, liftboats have broken through. And demand is growing.
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Coastal Energy Company ("Coastal") (TSX:CEN) (AIM:CEO) announces the successful completion of the previously announced merger (the "Merger") with Condor Acquisition (Cayman) Limited (the "Purchaser"), a newly-incorporated entity controlled by Compañía Española de Petróleos, S.A.U. ("CEPSA") and in which Strategic Resources (Global) Limited ("SRG") is an investor. Pursuant to the Merger, the Purchaser acquired all of Coastal's issued and outstanding shares (the "Common Shares") for consideration of C$19.00 per Common Share with effect from January 17, 2014.
With the completion of the Merger, the Common Shares are expected to be delisted from the Toronto Stock Exchange ("TSX") 2 to 4 business days following closing. In addition, the depositary interests representing Common Shares will be delisted from the AIM market operated by the London Stock Exchange plc ("AIM") with effect from 7:00 am (UK time) on January 21, 2014. Coastal intends to apply to the relevant securities regulatory authorities to cease to be a reporting issuer in the applicable jurisdictions in Canada.
Advisors and Legal Counsel
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC acted as financial advisors to Coastal. Stikeman Elliott LLP, Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP and Walkers acted as legal advisors to Coastal. Goldman Sachs International acted as financial advisor to CEPSA. PriceWaterhouseCoopers acted as a financial advisor to CEPSA and SRG. Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer acted as legal advisor to CEPSA. Blake, Cassels & Graydon LLP, Baker & McKenzie International and Conyers Dill & Pearman acted as legal advisors to CEPSA and SRG.
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New report reveals optimism in the sector but caution over rising costs and oil prices
Amid a positive outlook for the industry in 2014, senior oil and gas professionals have forecasted tighter monitoring of capital expenditure (capex) this year, according to new research published today by DNV GL, the leading technical advisor to the oil and gas industry. While nine in 10 (88%) respondents to the research are confident about the sector, concerns over rising operational costs, a shortage of skilled professionals and competition from international rivals are causing professionals to focus spending on the projects that will provide the greatest return on investment.
According to the report, the proportion of companies planning to increase investment in new projects has declined by 18 percentage points over the past three years, from a high of 63% in 2012 to just 45% in 2014. For the first time since 2011 and the aftermath of Macondo, overall confidence in the oil and gas sector has fallen – albeit only by one percentage point – signaling a shift in sentiment.
The findings come from a new research report, Challenging Climates: The outlook for the oil and gas industry in 2014, which was undertaken on behalf of DNV GL. The research provides a snapshot of industry sentiment about the year ahead and is based on a survey of more than 430 senior oil and gas professionals and in-depth interviews with more than 20 industry executives.
Key findings include:
• Despite some signs of caution, the overall outlook for 2014 is confident among industry professionals: around nine in 10 (88%) are optimistic about the outlook for 2014
• Respondents expect to keep a closer watch on costs: six in 10 (62%) intend to pressure suppliers to curb cost increases next year, especially across Asia
• Uncertainty over oil and gas prices will be more prevalent in 2014: nearly one in four (23%) of industry professionals thinks oil and gas prices will weaken this year, while 36% remain unsure
The report revealed a number of other findings including the skills issue and related to various regions. More about this here:
Shortage of key skills will be greatest barrier to oil and gas industry growth, new research reveals
North Sea oil and gas investment softens
New report reveals confidence among Asia Pacific oil and gas professionals New report reveals: North America and Brazil to hold greatest growth opportunities for oil and gas industry in 2014
Elisabeth Tørstad, CEO of DNV GL – Oil & Gas, says: “Oil and gas industry projects are becoming increasingly complex as the industry continues to operate in more challenging environments. The cost of exploration and production is rising, the industry’s pool of skilled professionals is decreasing and companies are feeling greater pressure on their overheads. This is all leading to great focus and a degree of ‘belt tightening’ across the industry with a view to keeping a tighter rein on capital expenditure. Although confidence is still high, for the first time since 2011 and the aftermath of Macondo, overall confidence in the oil and gas sector has fallen marginally, signaling a slight shift in sentiment.
“We’re also starting to see signs of greater consolidation across the oil and gas industry supply chain. Our research gives clear signs that pressure will be put on suppliers to become more innovative, to reduce costs and to show value in 2014 by providing access to scarce, in-demand skills and by demonstrating real quality in the products and services they deliver.”
Greater consolidation
In response to rising costs, operators will seek to rely on larger supply chain partners which are more capable of providing a consistent global service, according to the report. About one in five (22%) survey respondents says that their company will increase its work with larger partners, compared with just 6% in 2012. Furthermore, more than a third (37%) of operators say that their companies intend to acquire partners with the specialist knowledge and skills they need as they move into tougher exploration and production sites, with almost half (49%) saying they will need to increase alliances with others to share knowledge in order to cope with more challenging environments.
In turn, DNV GL’s research affirms that operators will focus on controlling risks and costs by seeking greater standardization in their procurement approaches. This gives rise to greater interest in oil companies centralizing, standardizing and streamlining their supply chain to avoid costs in creating new solutions. Future investment
The report also reveals that the US, Brazil and Australia are the top investment destinations for 2014, with larger operators seeking to expand into challenging new environments such as deepwater sites in East Africa and the Arctic.
Download a complimentary copy of Challenging Climates from: http://www2.dnvgl.com/2014-challenging-climates.pdf
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