Offshore blocks offered in Bangladesh's Bay of Bengal have attracted a disappointing level of interest from license-holders; however, anticipated improvements to the terms governing the country's oil and gas industry could entice investors, says research and consulting firm GlobalData.

According to the company's latest report*, only one extra bid is thought to have been received for the shallow-water blocks during the extension of Bangladesh's 2012 bidding round, adding to the three already received. As a result, more attractive fiscal terms are likely to be implemented in upcoming rounds, although the next one is unlikely to commence until 2015.
The fiscal terms for Bangladesh's deepwater blocks were amended significantly, with a number of new incentives, mid-round in 2013; however, no such improvements were applied to the terms for the shallow-water area, despite increasing demand for natural gas.

Jonathan Lacouture, GlobalData's Lead Analyst for the Asia-Pacific region, cites this lack of incentives as a reason for the low number of bids.

Bangladesh faces fierce competition from India and Myanmar for exploration investment in the Bay of Bengal,says the analyst. Incentives are needed to make the Bangladeshi blocks stand out, especially considering the substantial turnout which Myanmar recently experienced in its own licensing round."

Indeed, Bangladesh's upstream oil and gas sector is further clouded by ongoing uncertainty over the status of certain blocks in the shallow-water area. Following a clash with Myanmar over maritime boundaries, a similar dispute with India now remains unresolved, and arbitration on this dispute is not expected until June 2014.

Lacouture continues: If the ruling on this issue favors India, then it would threaten the integrity of the six offshore blocks on the western edge of the exclusive economic zone, which are currently claimed by Bangladesh. This arbitration means that the next bidding round will probably not happen until 2015 and the delay will only increase authorities urgency to attract investors."
Will Scargill, Fiscal Analyst for GlobalData, suggests that future incentives are most likely to be offered through either a higher-cost recovery limit, or an improved gas-pricing framework.
He says: "

Given the level of domestic demand, export provisions are unlikely to be offered. The 2008 model contract permitted exports, and it was precisely for this reason that there was a lot of political opposition to the contract."

NYC-based PIRA Energy Group reports that the midcontinent fundamentals weakened in November. The U.S. is in a much tighter stock position than last year. In Japan, Japanese low crude imports draw stocks. Specifically, PIRA’s analysis of the oil market fundamentals has revealed the following:

Midcontinent Fundamentals Weaken in November

High crude stocks on the Gulf Coast led to a further disconnect between U.S. and foreign markets in November, with the Brent-LLS differential rising to a record $10/Bbl. Meanwhile, continuing surplus stocks in the western Canada corridor further depressed Canadian differentials. And with West Texas now pipeline-connected to the Gulf Coast, the weak LLS-WTI spread allowed Midland differentials to slip lower. However, by late November and early December fundamentals were improving and all differentials had strengthened, with LLS and Mars moving from contango into backwardation.

U.S. in Much Tighter Stock Position than Last Year

For the first time this year U.S. commercial oil inventories have fallen below last year. Crude stocks are 14 million barrels above last year, although from a commercially available stock position crude inventories are really comparable to last year because of new infrastructure. Overall product stocks are 16 million barrels below last year. The inventory deficit to last year should further widen next week. While there is a small stock deficit to last year, adjusted petroleum product demand (four week average) is running a huge 1.57 MMB/D, or 8.5%, higher than last year.

Japanese Low Crude Imports Draw Stocks

Runs continued rising post-turnaround, but crude imports moved lower resulting in a strong crude stock draw. Both gasoline and gasoil demand eased back with minor stock changes for both. Kerosene stocks posted strong build rate, but the kerosene yield relative to jet yield does not fall within expected norms, suggesting a data revision down the road.

Increased Saudi Formula Crude Prices for January Directionally Discourage Liftings

Saudi Arabia's formula prices for January were recently released. Many of the differentials against the key pricing benchmarks were raised for movements to the U.S, Europe, and Asia, though Asian premiums on Arab Heavy and Medium were lowered slightly. For the U.S. market, the higher January differentials for Arab Light/Medium/Heavy are the strongest ever seen since the adoption of ASCI as a marker in 2010. The overall changes to formula pricing for January will directionally discourage liftings.

Refinery Outages and Atlantic Basin Products

While growing product exports from high runs in the United States have received much of the attention recently, there has also been an ongoing need for more light product imports into Latin America and Africa. That import requirement is driven by growing demand but stagnant refinery capacity. It has been compounded by refinery outages at times. Last year disastrous fires in Venezuelan refineries cut refinery output. More recently there was a fire in the Brazilian 190 MB/D REPAR refinery on November 28. Although it was originally thought to come back on line by mid-December, reports are now suggesting that it will take longer, perhaps by end-month.

Atlantic Basin Surplus Crude

The growth in crude production in the Atlantic Basin will have a profound impact on regional crude supply/ demand balances. Crude production growth is being driven by the shale “revolution” in the United States and increased oil sands development in Canada. The Atlantic Basin is broadly defined as including the Americas, Europe, and Africa. Refinery runs in these countries have declined somewhat in recent years after peaking in 2005-2007, but they are expected to slowly resume growth with increases in the U.S. and Latin America more than offsetting declines in Europe. However, the projected growth in crude production is much greater than the increase in refinery runs. As a result a sizeable crude surplus will develop within the region and crude will be forced to seek markets elsewhere, primarily in the rapidly growing countries in Asia. 

The information above is part of PIRA Energy Group's weekly Energy Market Recap, which alerts readers to PIRA’s current analysis of energy markets around the world as well as the key economic and political factors driving those markets. 

Business Monitor has just released its latest findings on Indonesia's oil and gas sector in its newly-published Indonesia Oil & Gas Report.

Business Monitor believes that the outlook for Indonesia's oil and gas sector is becoming increasingly uncertain. They forecast a long-term decline in total liquids production and a stagnation of gas production. This is mainly a result of the slow pace of exploration and development, exacerbated by an increasingly uncertain regulatory environment as resource nationalism creeps into the government's policy towards the sector. Opportunities for exports will be further compromised by the domestic market's increasing energy demand. Hence, falling oil and gas exports is another key trend identified for Indonesian oil and gas.

Key Trends and Developments discussed in the report:

■ Business Monitor forecast that oil and gas reserves will most likely be on a downward trend in the coming decade: oil reserves are expected to decrease from an estimate of 4.0bn barrels (bbl) of oil at the beginning of 2013 to 3.7bn bbl in 2017, falling further still to 3.4bn bbl by 2022. For gas, they expect reserves levels to be stagnant as addition from exploration successes in East Kalimantan cancels out natural depletion from existing fields. Reserves are forecast to fall from 3.07tcm in 2013 to 2.80tcm in 2017, and fall further to 2.51tcm unless the pace of drilling activity picks up.

■ Despite this outlook, Indonesia is a country where much below-ground potential continues to exist. If the country relaxes its nationalist stance on resources, there is considerable upside potential for both oil and gas reserves - greater drilling of its unexplored deepwater areas and its unconventional resources - coalbed methane and shale gas.

Business Monitor expect total liquids production (excluding refinery processing gains) to rise from an estimate of 919,670b/d in 2013 to 926,180b/d in 2014 and 932,260b/d in 2015, owing to major fields finally coming on-stream or ramping up to their full production capacity. Thereafter, in the longer term Business Monitor see oil output trending downwards to 884,840b/d in 2017 and hitting a low of 808,280b/d by 2022.

Despite grand plans to expand the country's refining capacity, difficulty in financing greenfield projects on top of modernising old plants in a unfavourable policy environment will see limited change to Indonesia's downstream landscape. Business Monitor expects refining capacity to stay stagnant at around 1.12mn b/d from 2015 through to the end of their forecast period. Total refined oil product output is expected to rise initially from an estimate of 981,840b/d in 2012 to 990,600b/d in 2016 - a result of an increase in output from modernised Cilacap and Balikpapan. However, growing inefficiencies in older plants could reverse this uptrend as utilisation rate falls, thereby leading to a slide in production downwards to 973,840b/d by 2022.

Owing to production problems, Business Monitor expect total gas production to have fallen to 71.3bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2012. Major gas projects expected on-stream in the next five years should support a slight rise in production, which they forecast at 77.0bcm in 2017 as declining production rates from existing fields will be cancelled out by new gas developments. Thus Business Monitor expect production levels to stay relative stagnant at 76.7bcm by 2022. Regulatory risks remain great and policy uncertainty underpins their sombre outlook of Indonesia's gas production within their 10-year forecast period. The country's gas consumption is estimated at 39.1bcm in 2012. With an increasing amount of new gas from projects reserved for the domestic market, this allows room for domestic gas demand to grow to about 48.0bcm in 2017 and hit 55.7bcm by 2022.

Greater confidence in Indonesia could be inspired if there is a more consistent policy towards the oil and gas industry; for one, the permanent establishment of a new upstream regulator to replace BPMigas. Temporary regulator (at time of writing), SKKMigas, has yet to be made permanent. Given the corruption scandal plaguing the make-shift regulator, it is unlikely to receive full regulatory authority anytime soon in the future. Moreover, proposed plans could see SKKMigas assume the identity of a stateowned firm - renamed as the National Upstream Oil and Gas Development Company (PPMN) - which could take a participating interest in projects it jointly signs with contractors.

At the time of writing Business Monitor assumed an OPEC basket oil price for 2014 of US$101.80 per barrel (bbl), falling to US$100/bbl in 2015. Global GDP in 2014 is forecast at 3.1%, up from an assumed 2.6% in 2012. For 2015, growth is estimated at 3.3%.