Platts – U.S. oil prices would have to fall another 20% or so before one of the leading American shale oil producers, Continental Resources, would cut back significantly on its operations, the company's CEO said Sunday on Platts Energy Week.

"We're hurt, but we're not to the point we're shutting down," Harold Hamm said. "And we're not getting close to that, yet, within a pretty good measurable amount, you know, $15 or $20. And certainly that's the case in the Bakken."

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for December delivery fell 90 cents last week, to close at $81.01 per barrel (/b) Friday.

Hamm, whose company is the second-largest producer in the Bakken, said he was optimistic that the oil price decline would reverse soon.

"I've thought that we ought to be in the $90 range for sure," he said. "And I think the price will quickly come back to that."

Rising demand in China, primarily for transportation, would remain a key driver of world oil prices, he added.

Hamm said he preferred not to talk about the point at which oil prices would cause sharp declines in U.S. drilling activity.

"I don't like to go there, talking about where would you stop," he said. "That gets to be putting more fear into the market, if you will, and panic. And that's certainly not anything we should be talking about."

Nevertheless, such speculation has been prevalent among analysts following the oil price decline. For example, Standard & Poor's Rating Services last week said a reduction in U.S. shale drilling is likely if WTI prices fall below $80/b. S&P, like Platts, is part of McGraw Hill Financial.

Still, Hamm acknowledged that Continental Resources and other companies have begun to scale back some activities in response to the price decline.

"Certainly, we've had a serious reduction in price, losing some $20/b over these last few weeks," he said. "So, that's a pretty good pull-back. And certainly, people will probably start adjusting right there on projects that they can push back or don't have to do for a while. And our company has done the same thing, and others have."

But Hamm said the impacts vary depending on the locations of the wells, the financial needs of individual companies and other factors. The Bakken shale, he added, "probably lends itself to lower prices" more than other shale reserves.

Other Program Highlights

Also Sunday, Brigham McCown, a former head of the U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, shared some of the infrastructure challenges facing the U.S. oil and natural gas sector.

During another segment, Murray Energy CEO Robert Murray discussed his efforts to help Republicans re-take the U.S. Senate this November amid sentiment that the Obama administration and Democrats in Congress are contributing to the decline of coal.

In "Market Spotlight," Andrew Moore, managing editor of Platts Coal Trader, gave an overview of the myriad factors shaping the U.S. coal market.

Platts Energy Week airs at 8 a.m. U.S. Eastern time Sunday mornings on WU.S.A9 in greater Washington, D.C., and in Houston on KUHT, a PBS affiliate, as well as on other PBS stations in cities throughout the U.S., including Anchorage, Billings, Houston, Juneau, Las Vegas, Minneapolis, San Francisco, Raleigh and Wichita. For online viewing, the program is accessible at www.plattstv.com.

States and International Oil Companies (IOCs) are banking on the Arctic as a major source of future oil and gas production, but the high costs and risks involved with operations in the area mean that an attractive fiscal regime is essential if developments are to be commercially viable, says an analyst with research and consulting firm GlobalData.

Will Scargill, GlobalData's Upstream Fiscal Analyst, states that Norway's high tax burden poses a challenge to commerciality when compared with Russian, Canadian and US Arctic fiscal regimes, although the country has already made significant progress in Arctic oil and gas development.

Scargill says: "In contrast to Russia, which introduced tax incentives for offshore Arctic developments earlier this year, Norway does not provide special incentives for its oil and gas industry. Norwegian fiscal terms were made even less appealing in May 2013, when the Labour-led government reduced the capital expenditure uplift, allowed over four years, from 30% to 22%.

"This change had a particularly detrimental impact on the potential economics of projects requiring high capital outlay, and the effects are especially visible in the marginal commerciality of Statoil's proposed Johan Castberg project in the Barents Sea. Although the right-wing coalition, which came into power in September 2013, indicated that it may introduce measures to mitigate the effect of the change, no incentives were announced in the recent budget."

According to Scargill, Johan Castberg's economics suggest that without such measures, new developments are unlikely to be commercially viable further north in the Barents Sea, where costs are expected to be higher.

On the other hand, the Canadian and US Arctic regimes would likely enable a project with Johan Castberg's cost profile to generate a fair return on investment.

However, as Scargill continues: "IOCs considering Arctic operations must balance the attractiveness of fiscal regimes with other obstacles.
"Despite the potential for promising economics in Alaska and Canada's offshore regions, these areas are subject to stringent environmental regulations, which could frustrate operators' plans."

NYC-based PIRA Energy Group believes that cyclical strengthening is currently underway in the global economy with the U.S. in a better position to support global growth. In the U.S., stock excess modestly widens. In Japan, crude runs ease, but crude stocks draw. Specifically, PIRA's analysis of the oil market fundamentals has revealed the following:

World Oil Market Forecast
Cyclical strengthening is currently underway in the global economy with the U.S. in a better position to support global growth. OPEC cannot rebalance oil markets because the surplus is too large. Even with PIRA's assumed substantial OPEC cuts at the upcoming November 27 meeting, supply will be over 1 MMB/D higher than demand in 2015. Oil markets will have to be rebalanced via price. The market will see greater contango but prices in the front of the market will inevitably be anchored by bullish medium term oil supply/demand balances.

U.S. Stock Excess Modestly Widens
This past week's inventory increase was slightly larger than the increase last year in the same week, widening the year-on-year inventory. Crude stocks still remain 2.1 million barrels below last year, middle distillate nearly 1 million barrels below, and gasoline 11.1 million barrels lower. Gasoline stocks are relatively low, but with resupply expected from higher runs and imports, gasoline has recently taken a drubbing. Not surprisingly, the one major product category showing a large surplus to last year's inventory is "other" products, which is mostly NGLs.

Japanese Crude Runs Ease, But Crude Stocks Draw
Crude runs eased, while crude imports declined sufficiently to draw crude stocks moderately. Finished product stocks resumed building with much of it being kerosene. Gasoline demand was modestly higher, and stocks posted a small draw. Gasoil demand was surprisingly weak, but lower yield tempered the stock build. Kerosene demand continued to run at seasonally low levels with higher yield, which boosted the stock build rate to a strong 132 MB/D. Refining margins remain soft with all the major product cracks, except for middle distillates (kero and gasoil) weakening.

The Sensitivity of Shale (and Other) Oil Production to Lower Price
We expect shale oil production to be relatively sensitive to a drop in oil prices, but the response will not occur immediately. A price lower than $80 on an LLS basis will reduce production, both due to the deterioration of the economics of the key shale plays as well as the reduction of cash flows and borrowing capability for the operators. However, the production impact during the first year will emerge slowly, as existing hedges, rig obligations and high-grading of drilling will initially temper the effect of lower prices. In the long-term, these impacts will grow substantially although lower activity levels should also eventually lead to lower costs, partially offsetting the price effect.

U.S. NGL Complex Spirals Lower
December Mont Belvieu propane futures continued to spiral lower, falling 5.4% to $0.86/gal the lowest price since July 2014. Ever increasing stocks and challenging export economics continue to complicate matters for the fuel/feedstock. Midcontinent propane markets were slightly better, only 3.4% lower, widening the Conway premium to 6.5¢/gal – the highest this season. Next week, falling crude prices will continue to drag on NGL prices while closed spot arbitrage economics will hinder exports to Europe and Asia.

U.S. Production Margins Improved After Declining for Eight Straight Weeks
The cash margins for U.S. ethanol manufacture rebounded the week ending October 17 as the market tightened. Ethanol was $1.78 per gallon in Chicago on Friday, up 21.9% from its $1.46 bottom on October 2.

U.S. Ethanol Stocks Fall to Seven-Week Low
U.S. ethanol inventories declined for three consecutive weeks, dropping to a seven-week low 17.9 million barrels. Ethanol production rebounded to 896 MB/D the week ending October 17, up from 885 MB/D during the preceding week.

The information above is part of PIRA Energy Group's weekly Energy Market Recap - which alerts readers to PIRA's current analysis of energy markets around the world as well as the key economic and political factors driving those markets.