With oil prices having fallen more than 50% in less than six months, the OPEC group's reluctance to cut production in order to stabilize prices reflects the threat being posed by production rises from non-OPEC countries, according to research and consulting firm GlobalData.

Matthew Jurecky, GlobalData's Head of Oil & Gas Research and Consulting, states that over 70% of the 12.7 million barrels of oil per day (mmbd) incremental production between 2008 and 2013 came from non-OPEC countries, led by the US, Russia and China.

However, the fall in prices is now slowing production growth among the least efficient producers with the highest development costs, while the market dominance of the most efficient producers with the lowest development costs, predominantly OPEC members, is being reinstated.

Jurecky comments: "Any production cut from OPEC would be motivated by politics rather than economic conditions and would mean voluntarily ceding further market share to less efficient producers.

"While OPEC countries make up only four of the 17 countries that have seen the most dramatic production declines, they represent over 30% of the overall production fall. OPEC is facing diminishing influence on the overall crude space and encountering new competitors, including some former customers, in previously secure markets."

The US, for example, encouraged by its rapid production growth and lucrative international market, is on course to reverse an oil export ban dating back to 1975, which effectively protected OPEC's markets. Similarly, while Africa used to be the source of over 2 mmbd of crude imports into the US, it now exports only 150,000 barrels per day to the country, with the rest going to Asia.

Jurecky continues: "There are game-changers ready to fuel the next wave of reserve additions and production growth, but in terms of low oil prices, exploration activity will cool. The tight oil floodgates that were opened in the US will be contained internationally for the time being, while ultra-deepwater and harsh environment exploration will be delayed.

"However, other world-class opportunities will be dictated by political interests. For example, inviting greater foreign participation in Mexico's oil industry will further challenge the status quo of export markets, as there remains significant easy oil opportunity in this country, even with low crude prices."

Comments provided by Matthew Jurecky, GlobalData’s Head of Oil & Gas Research and Consulting.

NYC-based PIRA Energy Group believes that low oil prices and cheap money will lead to stronger global economic growth and much stronger oil demand. In the U.S., the stock surplus widened again. In Japan, crude runs rose fractionally on the week and crude imports rose to produce a crude stock build. Specifically, PIRA's analysis of the oil market fundamentals has revealed the following:

World Oil Market Forecast
Low oil prices and cheap money will lead to stronger global economic growth and much stronger oil demand than conventional wisdom would suggest. Nevertheless, for the next six months, oil supply will continue to overwhelm demand, in part because of rapid growth in Iraqi production as its government desperately seeks more revenue. Already wide contango will further widen as crude oil stocks in the three major OECD markets fill to the brim and floating stocks keep on increasing.

U.S. Stock Surplus Widens Again
Compared to last year, U.S. commercial oil inventories are now 125 million barrels, or 12%, higher, as this past week's inventory increase contrasted with last year's decrease for the same week. Crude stocks increased strongly this past week while products drew. So far in January the overall inventory increase has been the largest since 2009.

Japan Crude Runs Near Seasonal Maximums, Product Demands Slightly Better
Crude runs rose fractionally on the week and crude imports rose to produce a crude stock build. Finished product stocks fell with a strong draw on kerosene and lesser draws for gasoil and gasoline. Indicative refining margins remain strong.

Limited Oil Consumption Gains in Northeast Power Sector Despite Low Oil Prices
Despite colder-than-normal January weather, the Northeast of the United States is not seeing much in the way of substitution of oil for natural gas. In fact, oil consumption will be substantially below year-ago levels despite roughly comparable weather.

Can Global Oil Demand Really Grow 1.5 MMB/D in 2015?
PIRA's outlook for global oil demand growth in 2015 may seem quite bullish when compared with the actual growth of 0.7 MMB/D in 2014, but several factors make our forecast very reasonable, with potential upside. Moderately faster world GDP growth should push up demand growth by 130 MB/D, and the 50% decline in prices should add an additional 780 MB/D of demand growth, even using relatively modest price elasticity assumptions and accounting for the significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar.

Expiration of March WTI Contract of Increasing Importance
The expiration of the March WTI crude oil contract, along with the rolling of various commodity indices and ETFs, has the making of an interesting period of price dynamics over the next several weeks, because of the huge open interest in the contract. The March WTI contract will last trade February 20th, with various commodity indices and ETFs undergoing contract roll schedules in the first part of February (fifth to the 10th business day, or Feb. 6th-11th). This could contribute to a decline in flat price, given that the balance of power would seem to be in favor of the shorts because of the mechanical and widely known nature of the ETF and passive index rolls.

Floating Storage Expected to Play Key Role in Crude Containment
Over the next several months, the cost of storage and, in turn, the magnitude of the market contango will be a crucial factor in determining how low the spot price must go. With less expensive onshore storage expected to fill, floating storage is likely to be the market balancing step. The marginal costs of storing crude on VLCCs and Suezmax tonnage are expected to be the critical factors in setting the level of contango in the crude market. So key questions for the oil and tanker sectors are how much tonnage is available for placement into offshore storage and what will it cost?

European LPG Rises with Stronger Naphtha
Regional naphtha rallied to the highest levels of the year as high cracker runs, increased gasoline blending, and arbitrage cargoes to Asia have pulled NWE stocks down significantly. Cash butane barge lots rallied 16% to $398/MT on stronger naphtha and as Shell's Pernis refinery restarted an alkylation unit, which has helped clean up C4 length in the region. Large propane cargoes followed suit, gaining 4% last week.

U.S. Ethanol Prices Decline to Lowest Values in Almost a Decade
During the first half of January prices fell to the lowest level in almost 10 years, inventories built, and margins fell to the worst level in two years. Economics improved during the last half of the month.

The information above is part of PIRA Energy Group's weekly Energy Market Recap - which alerts readers to PIRA's current analysis of energy markets around the world as well as the key economic and political factors driving those markets.

The recent oil price downturn is expected to have a significant impact on the global land rig market in 2015, as operators announce planned cuts to expenditure. Following a 24% rise over the 2010-2014 period, the number of active drilling rigs is expected to fall 12% in 2015.

The North American market, which is particularly susceptible to fluctuations in commodity prices, is expected to see the largest impact, with the active drilling rig fleet forecast to decline by 29%. Notably, Apache Corporation has announced plans to cut spending on its North American assets by 26 percent in 2015.

In comparison, the impact of the oil price downturn on the international market is expected to be less severe. OPEC's decision in November 2014 not to cut production indicates that drilling activity in the key Gulf producing states, and subsequently demand for land rigs, is unlikely to be affected in the near-term by the low oil price environment. In contrast, Russia's economy is heavily reliant on oil exports, and the recent economic sanctions imposed are expected to contribute to a further decline in drilling activity in 2015, causing the number of active drilling rigs to stagnate. In Latin America, the oil price downturn has placed increased financial pressure on Brazil's Petrobras. Venezuela has a high breakeven price and has also been significantly impacted. Douglas-Westwood is forecasting a decline of 4% in the Latin American active rig fleet in 2015.

Post-2015, the outlook for the market is more positive, with the global active rig fleet forecast to increase by 20% over the next five years as drilling activity increases, reaching just under 6,100 units in 2019. However, there remains uncertainty within the market, and demand for high HP rigs is likely to be affected if high Capex unconventional projects become uneconomic.

Katy Smith, Douglas-Westwood London
+44 1795 594745 or This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
www.douglas-westwood.com