NYC-based PIRA Energy Group reports that Asian oil markets remain constructive. On the week, demand surge lessens U.S. stock build, while Japanese turnarounds build crude stocks. Specifically, PIRA’s analysis of the oil market fundamentals has revealed the following:
Asian Oil Markets Remain Constructive
Crude oil stock draws have begun and will continue through September. As expected, physical markets are now supported by relatively low stock levels and higher crude runs. The Atlantic basin has tightened first and Asia will follow. Supply disruptions remain near record highs, and while some return of shut-in supplies are assumed in PIRA's balances, they are by no means assured and can be accommodated if fully realized. Product demand growth trends remain positive as we move off the May lows to the summer peak.
Demand Surge Lessens U.S. Stock Build
Overall commercial inventories increased this past week, with nearly 1.0 million barrels of the build being in crude oil. It was the smallest stock increase in six weeks as reported demand surged. With a roughly similar sized build last year for the same week, the year on year inventory deficit narrowed marginally. Most of this deficit is in gasoline and distillate.
Japan Turnarounds Build Crude Stocks, Finished Product Stocks Rising, while Gasoil Demand Remains Weak
Crude runs eased slightly while crude imports rose such that stocks built 1.9 MMBbls. Finished product stocks also built 1.6 MMBbls due to builds in jet-kero, gasoil, and a modest rise in fuel oil. Finished product stocks have been rising steadily since mid-March. Gasoil demand was exceedingly weak, even post holiday. Refining margins were slightly higher but remain in the lower half of their statistical range.
Scenario Planning Quarterly Highlights
US shale liquids growth continues to outpace our forecast, but only slightly. A close examination of shale potential in Western Canada has led us to increase our outlook for crude and condensate although production costs in Canada appear to be higher than in the US. The developments in Ukraine increase the odds of greater investment in gas exports in the US and around the world in response to supply security concerns
Freight Market Outlook
The U.S. shale crude revolution is changing the dynamics of global crude and product trade, and there is now an active dialogue on whether to lift the ban on crude exports from the U.S. If exports of crude or condensate are allowed at some point, global crude trade and ton-miles would increase, as U.S. refiners import heavier grades more suited to their refinery configurations, while some lighter crude grades and condensates are exported to Europe and Asia. PIRA’s Reference Case outlook in a soon-to-be released multi-client study anticipates that some crude and condensate exports will be allowed but not until 2017, after the next presidential election.
Low Shoulder Season Demand Exacerbates Upcoming Inventory Builds
Large stock builds continue to weigh on prompt prices. As the year-on-year deficit continues to narrow, US LPG prices could come under additional pressure. Low shoulder season demand will only exacerbate upcoming inventory builds. Excess ethane due to surging production will leave ethane prices tied to natural gas prices for some time to come.
Ethanol Prices Rebound
U.S. ethanol prices bottomed early the week ending May 9 but rose sharply after the DOE reported that production and inventories both declined during the week ending May 2. Cash margins dropped for the sixth straight week.
Record Ethanol Blending
U.S. ethanol-blended gasoline manufacture rocketed to a record high 8,957 MB/D the week ending May 9, up 4.5% from 8,571 MB/D during the previous week, as gasoline output remained extremely strong. Ethanol production rose to 922 MB/D, the second highest output thus far in 2014
The information above is part of PIRA Energy Group's weekly Energy Market Recap, which alerts readers to PIRA’s current analysis of energy markets around the world as well as the key economic and political factors driving those markets.
.
Western Europe will continue to rely on imported Russian gas into the 2020s as mature offshore provinces struggle for growth, while large-scale shale gas extraction looks increasingly unlikely in the medium term. Following Moscow's intervention in Ukraine and the resulting strained diplomatic ties with the West, it remains to be seen if North Sea production can rally to support any drop in gas flow from Russia.
With many IOCs planning investment into UK offshore fields through enhanced oil recovery (EOR), deeper water plays and downstream infrastructure upgrades, our Development Drilling & Production Forecast predicts that production will rally slightly to around 1.75 million b/d by 2017, requiring a maintaining of the recent 6% jump in well completions. The necessary high levels of expenditure are unlikely to be sustained in the long-term due to the UK's offshore maturity; therefore, DW expect a resumption of decline towards the end of the decade. Hope for any long-term growth rests with much-needed reform of the UK's offshore regulator, which must swiftly adapt to the shift towards production from smaller fields.
On the other side of the North Sea, Statoil are to attempt improved recovery from brownfield projects offshore Norway. Along with the start of projects in the large Johan Sverdrup and Goliat fields, this will see the number of well completions sustained at around 200 a year beyond 2020. DW expect these projects will see Norway break from the mould of other mature Western European producers and sustain production into the next decade. It must be noted, however, that both of these fields are currently subject to delay. Johan Sverdrup is facing electrification issues whilst ENI's Goliat FPSO is still to be completed and may take millions of man-hours more.
Potential risks to future growth include rising costs and the potential (albeit currently small, and in the longer term) competition from shale gas production. A recent victim of rising costs was the subsea compression project at Ormen Lange, despite positive results during testing and the backing of Statoil and ExxonMobil. Recent onshore legislation changes in the UK now allows for drilling and pipeline construction under private property. This, along with growing encouragement from Westminster of E&P companies, shows that shale gas extraction could be possible on a larger scale towards the end of the decade.
Matt Cook, Douglas-Westwood London
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
.NYC-based PIRA Energy Group reports that midcontinent crude differentials strengthen in April. On the week, another U.S. commercial stock build narrows the stock deficit versus last year. In Japan, total commercial stocks built. Specifically, PIRA’s analysis of the oil market fundamentals has revealed the following:
Midcontinent Crude Differentials Strengthen in April
Canadian crude differentials strengthened relative to WTI in April, and all Midcontinent crude prices strengthened relative to Brent and LLS. Stocks continued to fall in Cushing, as recently installed pipeline capacity continues to move the PADD II crude surplus into PADD III.
Another Commercial Stock Build Narrows the Stock Deficit Versus Last Year
Although U.S. crude stocks posted their first weekly draw since the end of March, a total commercial stock build for the week of May 2 narrowed the year-over-year stock deficit by building at about twice the rate as the same week last year. The deficit of the four major refined products actually widened, while the deficit of propane and all other products was almost halved. Propane led the way with the largest weekly build in at least 10 years.
In Japan, Oil Balances Reflect Golden Week Holidays
Due to the "Golden Week" holidays, two weeks of data were reported this past week, both April 26th and May 3rd. Total commercial stocks built with finished products and crude rising. Runs declined in both weeks. There were two consecutive stock builds for both gasoline and gasoil. Gasoline demand didn't exhibit as much of a "holiday pop" as expected and stocks built both weeks. Gasoil demand declined due to holiday impacts and stocks built for both weeks.
Ethane Prices Tied to Natural Gas Prices
Low shoulder season demand will continue to pressure propane prices. Next week’s propane inventory report will be an important indicator. Excess ethane due to surging production will leave ethane prices tied to natural gas prices for some time to come.
Ethanol Prices Plummet
After a brief pause at the end of April, U.S. ethanol prices resumed their freefall the week ending May 2, as inventories built for the second straight week, reaching the highest level since July 2013. Cash margins declined again, but they are still substantially higher than at this time last year.
Aramco Announces Crude Price Differentials for June
Saudi Arabia's formula prices for June have just been released. Most notably, U.S. formula prices were increased by $0.80/Bbl versus the sour benchmark and stand at their highest levels seen yet. Since December 2013 the price for Saudi crude for U.S. destinations has risen by $3/Bbl compared to local competing USG grades. This will ultimately result in lower liftings by U.S. refiners and consequent repositioning of Saudi exports more toward growing Asian import markets.
The information above is part of PIRA Energy Group's weekly Energy Market Recap, which alerts readers to PIRA’s current analysis of energy markets around the world as well as the key economic and political factors driving those markets.
.NYC-based PIRA Energy Group believes that the physical markets are recovering. In the U.S., commercial stocks continue to March higher. Specifically, PIRA’s analysis of the oil market fundamentals has revealed the following:
Physical Markets Are Recovering
PIRA's economic growth forecast is on track. Market positioning is more of a concern for next month's prices than seasonality. Physical markets are recovering, especially in the Atlantic Basin, supported by relatively low stocks and higher crude run demand. As expected, low inventories have strongly kicked off the gasoline season, but with higher crude runs gasoline stocks will build back towards more typical levels. Diesel tightness will ease over the next few months, but stocks will stay generally low all year.
European Oil Market Forecast
Atlantic Basin crude supply growth in light grades supports continued relative strength in Urals differentials hurting refining margins for medium-sour grades. Light product exports from Russia will increase and VGO/straight run resid exports will decline, this year and next. Refining margins in Europe will remain challenged this year with marginal FCC/visbreaking capacity modestly attractive through midyear but then weaker in the 4th quarter. Gasoline cracks will peak early as stocks will build back quickly over the next few months. Distillate inventories will remain low and prices will strengthen further as demand picks up after midyear.
U.S. February 2014 DOE Monthly Revisions
DOE released its final monthly February 2014 (PSM) U.S. oil supply/demand data today. Demand came in at 18.99 MMB/D versus the 18.77 MMB/D PIRA had assumed in its balances. Compared with the weekly preliminary data, total demand was revised higher by a large 538 MB/D, with distillate demand revised higher by 601 MB/D, and gasoline higher by 226 MB/D. This is because of much lower exports than the DOE was assuming. End-February total commercial stocks stood at 1,047 MMBbls, nearly identical to PIRA's projection.
The Freefall in Ethanol Prices paused at the end of April
U.S. ethanol prices declined sharply during most of April as the weather in the Midwest improved and the gridlock in the rail system eased. The last few days of the month, prices stabilized as some companies needed to purchase ethanol to meet April supply commitments.
Ethanol Stocks Build
Ethanol inventories built to the highest level since July 2013 the week ending April 25, rising by 694 thousand barrels to 17.2 million barrels. Ethanol production fell to 898 MB/D from 910 MB/D during the preceding week.
The information above is part of PIRA Energy Group's weekly Energy Market Recap, which alerts readers to PIRA’s current analysis of energy markets around the world as well as the key economic and political factors driving those markets.
.
Offshore Source keeps you updated with relevant information concerning the Offshore Energy Sector.
Any views or opinions represented on this website belong solely to the author and do not represent those of the people, institutions or organizations that Offshore Source or collaborators may or may not have been associated with in a professional or personal capacity, unless explicitly stated.