The fifteenth edition of the WindEnergy trend:index (WEtix) reflects a weakening mood in the wind energy market compared to last year in both the onshore and offshore segments, with the general outlook remaining positive except for the North American market.

Compiled at six-month intervals since 2018 and issued by the global flagship fair WindEnergy Hamburg in collaboration with wind:research, a leading market research institute for wind energy, the survey this time proves in particular that the economic environment and the market development in the North American wind sector are now seen in a significantly less favorable light than in the other world regions. In both the onshore and offshore segments, North America has reached a low point, with responses to all questions in the negative range for the first time. However, this does not have a major impact on the assessment of technological development.

Many market stakeholders are viewing the development of the onshore and offshore segments with much more skepticism than last year. While respondents continue to give generally positive ratings to the onshore markets—with the exception of the North American market—ratings are at a significantly lower level. The mood for the next twelve months is slightly better than for the coming two years.

Assessment of the global market for onshore wind energy within the next twelve months. (Image credit: Hamburg Messe und Congress)

Expectations for the coming twelve-month period in the offshore segment are showing a similarly distinct decline. This is even more pronounced for the longer-term outlook on the coming two years. Nevertheless, both the short- and long-term assessments for offshore remain in the positive quadrant, again with the exception of the North American market.

Assessment of the global market for offshore wind energy within the next twelve months. (Image credit: Hamburg Messe und Congress)

Market stakeholders’ perceptions of the North American market are clearly pessimistic now. Not only are the ratings of the market development over the coming twelve months in both, the onshore and offshore segments significantly poorer than in recent surveys but, for the first time,  expectations for the longer-term market development are negative. These even more negative expectations for the coming two years are in part attributable to the policy change in the USA under the new administration of President Donald Trump.

Offshore Keeps Growing, Onshore Declines Slightly

Answers from industry stakeholders to the questions addressing the average output power of newly installed turbines are quite unanimous: The expected average size of a turbine installed offshore in 2030 has increased once again, reaching a new maximum of 19.44 MW on average. Meanwhile, forecasts for the average size of onshore turbines have dropped somewhat to roughly 8.46 MW. This means that the assessment of the technology development, especially in the offshore segment, is not affected negatively by the generally more subdued views of market developments and the economic environment.

Grid Issues Delay New Development Projects

In the previous WEtix survey, permitting and grid intertie were said to be the biggest hurdles for further expansion of onshore and offshore wind energy. To explore these issues further, the current edition of the WEtix survey asked respondents to indicate the length of delays caused by grid bottlenecks in new development projects. This revealed an average delay period in onshore development projects of 2.8 years. In offshore wind projects, this delay is even more severe, averaging at 3.2 years. These delays once more underline the importance of rapid grid development efforts.

Delays of wind energy development projects caused by grid bottlenecks. (Image credit: Hamburg Messe und Congress)