OPEC output dropped sharply in September, but non-OPEC supply growth is expected to approach record high in 2014
Global oil supplies declined by 625 000 barrels per day (650 kb/d) in September, to 91.12 million barrels per day (mb/d), on steeply lower OPEC output, the IEA Oil Market Report for October told subscribers. But non‐OPEC supply growth for 2013 is forecast to average 1.1 mb/d, to 54.7 mb/d, rising to a near‐record 1.7 mb/d next year.
OPEC crude supplies slipped below 30 mb/d for the first time in almost two years, led by steep drops in Libya and Iraq. Output fell by 645 kb/d, to 29.99 mb/d, despite Saudi output exceeding 10 mb/d for a third month running. The "call on OPEC crude and stock change" was raised by 100 kb/d, to 29.6 mb/d, for the current quarter.
Recent demand strength has raised the 2013 forecast by 90 kb/d, to 91.0 mb/d. Demand growth for 2013 is projected at 1.0 mb/d (or 1.1%), ramping up to 1.1 mb/d in 2014 as the macroeconomic backdrop improves.
The Oil Market Report (OMR) is a monthly International Energy Agency publication which provides a view of the state of the international oil market and projections for oil supply and demand 12-18 months ahead. To subscribe, click here.
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