NYC-based PIRA Energy Group believes that the China GDP slowdown is underway. On the week, U.S. commercial stocks drew. Specifically, PIRA’s analysis of the oil market fundamentals has revealed the following:
Difficult Transitions Underway
The China GDP slowdown is underway. It is still unclear whether the long-predicted transition to slower, domestic led growth will be successful and smooth. While this may represent a vulnerability to demand growth (for all fuels), the increasingly volatile political transition in MENA could prove to represent a far more important vulnerability to oil and gas supply growth. The shale revolution continues to spread from the natural gas supply to the demand side of the balance as new markets emerge to take advantage of the growth of low cost North American production.
U.S. Stocks Drew Last Week
Total commercial stocks decreased for the week ending August 9, largely offsetting the modest builds seen in the prior two weeks. Products increased despite lower refinery runs and lower product imports due to weaker reported demand. Crude stocks drew, with Cushing crude stock draws accounting for half of the total draw. Cushing crude stocks are now down from the all-time high this year and at the lowest level since 1Q12. Despite this week’s decline, the stock excess to last year widened as there was a draw in this week last year.
U.S. Sees Low Propane Stock Build
A surprisingly low stock build was indicated for the latest reporting week. The U.S. is experiencing a widening deficit to last year. The storage deficit relative to last season is expected to widen as the pace of exports picks up and with a likely favorable crop drying season ahead.
EPA Finalizes 2013 Biofuel Standards and Will Reduce 2014 Mandates
U.S. ethanol prices and margins fell last week because of rising production, inventories and imports. Sharply lower RIN prices also put downside pressure on prices. The EPA finalized the renewable fuel standards for 2013 and stated that it will reduce the 2014 mandates in order for them to be achievable.
Ethanol Stocks Draw; Production Higher
Ethanol stocks were drawn by 291 thousand barrels to 16.4 million barrels for the week ending August 9, erasing the build from the previous week. U.S. ethanol production rose for the second straight week, reaching 857 MB/D from 853 MB/D the prior week as several manufacturers maximized output prior to extended turnarounds planned for later this month and during September.
The information above is part of PIRA Energy Group's weekly Energy Market Recap, which alerts readers to PIRA’s current analysis of energy markets around the world as well as the key economic and political factors driving those markets.
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At a meeting held on August 16 , Petrobras' Board of Directors approved the following asset sale transactions totaling US$ 2.1 billion:
1. Sale of a 100% interest in Petroquímica Innova S.A. (Innova) to Videolar S.A. and its majority shareholder for R$ 870 million (approximately US$ 372 million1), the buyer to take on debt of approximately R$ 23 million.
The transaction will be put to a vote at an Extraordinary Shareholders' Meeting to be convened in due course and, based on the opinion of the Brazilian Securities Commission, will not involve any preemptive rights for the acquisition of Innova shares by Petrobras shareholders.
Innova is a second-generation petrochemical company sited in the Petrochemical Zone of Triunfo, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. It produces ethylbenzene, styrene and polystyrene, used in the manufacture of home appliances, disposables, elastomers, packaging, paints and fiberglass.
Completion of the transaction is subject to certain standard pre-conditions, including approval by the Brazilian Antitrust Authority (Cade).
2. Sale of the 35% stake held by Petrobras in block BC-10, known as Parque das Conchas, to the Sinochem Group for US$ 1.54 billion.
Block BC-10 is located in the Campos Basin, some 100 km off the south coast of the state of Espírito Santo, and partners include Shell, the operator with a 50% stake, and ONGC with 15%. These partners have preemptive rights which can be exercised within 30 days after notification.
Completion of the transaction is subject to the certain standard pre-conditions, including approval by the Brazilian Antitrust Authority (Cade), Brazil's National Petroleum, Natural Gasand Biofuels Agency (ANP) and China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).
3. Signing of farm-out contracts amounting to US$ 185 million related to 100% of the Petrobras stake in blocks MC 613 (Coulomb), GB 244 (Cottonwood) and EW 910, all in production and located in the US Gulf of Mexico.
Petrobras has a 33% stake in the Coulomb field; the remaining 67% is held by Shell, which is the operator. The field is located in Mississippi Canyon Block 613 (MC 613), some 130 km off the coast of Louisiana.
Petrobras has a 100% stake in the Cottonwood field located in the Garden Banks Block 244 (GB 244), some 220 km off the coast of Texas.
Petrobras has a 60% stake in the EW910 asset; the remaining 40% is held by W&T Offshore, which is the operator.
The transaction is subject to third party preemptive rights and approval by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM).
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Apache Corporation (NYSE, Nasdaq: APA) has announced it has agreed to sell oil and gas producing properties in the Nevis, North Grant Lands and South Grant Lands areas of western Alberta, Canada, to Ember Resources Inc., a private Canadian company, for US$214 million (CAN$220 million).
"Going forward, Apache is focused on growing our liquids production from a deep inventory of crude oil- and liquids-rich opportunities that generate attractive rates of return on our extensive remaining acreage in Canada's Western Sedimentary Basin," said Rodney J. Eichler, president and chief operating officer. "We also remain focused on advancing the Kitimat LNG project to monetize large unconventional resources in the Liard and Horn River basins in northern British Columbia.
"This transaction is one element of a comprehensive review of Apache's portfolio to determine which assets make the most sense for Apache to own given our growth and return objectives and which assets are better owned by others," Eichler said. "The Nevis, North Grant Lands and South Grant Lands assets fit in the latter category."
Apache's Nevis, North Grant Lands and South Grant Lands assets
The assets comprise 621,000 gross acres (530,000 net acres) and more than 2,700 wells that had average net production of 67 million cubic feet of gas and 237 barrels of liquid hydrocarbons per day from late Cretaceous sands and coal seams during the second quarter of 2013. Apache will retain 100 percent working interest in horizons below the Cretaceous, such as potential Duvernay and Nisku, in Nevis and North Grant Lands.
The effective date of the transaction is April 1, 2013, and it is expected to be completed during the third quarter, subject to customary regulatory approvals and other closing conditions.
"I commend the employees who have worked these assets for many years of safe and environmentally responsible operations," Eichler said.
Portfolio Rebalancing
Apache previously announced plans to divest $4 billion in assets by year-end 2013. The company intends to use proceeds from the asset divestitures to reduce debt and enhance financial flexibility and to repurchase Apache common shares under a 30- million-share repurchase program authorized by the Board of Directors earlier this year.
In July, Apache announced an agreement to sell its Gulf of Mexico Shelf operations and properties to Fieldwood Energy LLC (Fieldwood), an affiliate of Riverstone Holdings, for cash proceeds of $3.75 billion. In addition, Fieldwood will assume all asset retirement obligations for these properties, which, as of June 30, 2013, Apache estimated at a discounted value of approximately $1.5 billion.
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ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) has announced that it has closed a transaction with the National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago Limited (NGC) for the sale of its wholly owned subsidiary, Trinidad and Tobago Holdings LLC, for a total consideration of $600 million plus customary adjustments.
Trinidad and Tobago Holdings LLC holds a 39 percent interest in Phoenix Park Gas Processors Limited (PPGPL). PPGPL operates a gas processing and natural gas liquids fractionation facility located at Point Lisas, Trinidad.
“The sale of this noncore, midstream asset represents further progress in strengthening and focusing the ConocoPhillips portfolio, and advances the strategic interests of both NGC and ConocoPhillips,” said Don Wallette, executive vice president, Commercial, Business Development and Corporate Planning. “We appreciate the long and productive relationship we have had with NGC.”
ConocoPhillips expects to recognize an after-tax gain of approximately $290 million for the sale.
Including this transaction, ConocoPhillips has announced expected proceeds of approximately $14.1 billion from the sale of nonstrategic assets as part of its 2012-13 asset disposition program. Through June 30, 2013, the company has received $3.8 billion in proceeds from completed sales, with the remainder expected by year-end 2013. These proceeds will be available for general corporate purposes and allow the company to advance existing growth programs.
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