NYC-based PIRA Energy Group believes that the global economy will expand at above trend pace in the second half of 2014. In the U.S., products increased and crude stock declined.  In Japan, crude stocks built as imports rebounded from storm impacts. Specifically, PIRA’s analysis of the oil market fundamentals has revealed the following:

World Oil Market Forecast

After a sub-par first half, the global economy will expand at above trend pace in the second half of 2014, led by manufacturing. First half weakness in the economy undermined global oil balances with inventories building back to year ago levels. The U.S. crude inventory situation is quite tight while Europe is very long, although the worst of the European prompt crude price weakness has likely passed. The sharp decline in financial net length is supportive for nominal oil prices.

Again, a Product Increase and Crude Stock Decline

Overall U.S. commercial oil inventories increased compared to last year’s decline for the same week, expanding the year on year inventory excess. The product stock increase was roughly the same compared to the week earlier, as crude runs, product imports and reported demand did not change much. The crude inventory gap narrowed by 3.5 million barrels - to a still large 4 million barrels.

Japanese Crude Stocks Build as Imports Rebound from Storm Impacts

Runs continued to rise as turnarounds wind down. Crude imports jumped higher following typhoon disruptions and crude stocks built. Gasoline demand was only slightly higher, despite the upcoming holiday and stocks built from record lows. Gasoil demand was higher with a big surge in exports such that stocks drew 1 MMBbls. Kerosene demand remained low and stocks continued building.

Profitability of U.S. Shale Oil Plays: The Paradox of Company vs. Well Results

It is possible that individual shale wells may have breakevens well below current oil prices while the companies that are drilling those wells are struggling against cash flow limitations. The inability of companies to turn cash flows positive has raised the question of whether the shale industry is really viable financially in the long-term, or just supported by cheap money. An in-depth analysis of the play economics shows that negative cash flows are mostly a result of aggressive drilling behavior that should eventually reward investors.

LPG Scorecard

U.S LPG prices remained stable despite large increases in domestic inventories. The promise of increased exports has the bears on the sidelines, for now. Mt Belvieu propane settled at 104¢/gal, up marginally on the week. August/February contango in the propane forward curve increased by 0.6¢ in the week, to 5.2¢. Butane prices were flat. Ethane at Mt Belvieu fell with Henry Hub natural gas. Ethane’s fractionation margin remains negative, albeit by only 1¢/gal, reflecting the lack of outlets and high inventories currently facing the cracker feedstock. High and rising inventories will contain prices while the prospect of higher exports and the nearing end of summer will be supportive for U.S. LPG prices next week.

U.S. Ethanol Manufacturing Margins Lower

Chicago and Gulf Coast ethanol prices were stable the week ending July 18, but values in Southern California rose while prices in New York fell. Ethanol manufacturing cash margins were down slightly, as falling DDG values outweighed lower corn costs.

U.S. Ethanol Output Rises

U.S. ethanol production increased to 959 MB/D the week ending July 18, the second highest output of the year. Inventories were relatively flat, declining by only 5 thousand barrels to a five-week low 17.9 million.

The information above is part of PIRA Energy Group's weekly Energy Market Recap, which alerts readers to PIRA’s current analysis of energy markets around the world as well as the key economic and political factors driving those markets.

NYC-based PIRA Energy Group believes that with both the physical market and financial length bottoming, oil prices are at or near their lows. In the U.S., sharp crude stock reduction is offset by a product build.  In Japan, crude stocks posted a large draw. Specifically, PIRA’s analysis of the oil market fundamentals has revealed the following:

Sharp U.S. Crude Stock Reduction Offset by Product Build

Crude stocks fell for the week ending July 11, 2014 while product inventories built, causing an overall inventory build. This inventory pattern fits with record crude runs. Last year for the same week, inventories were down slightly so the year-on-year inventory excess widened. Crude oil and other products are up on last year while the four major product inventories are down.

Japanese Crude Runs Rise, Crude Stocks Post a Large Draw

Despite typhoon Neoguri hitting Japan the last week, runs still posted a sizable gain, while imports dropped and crude stocks drew. Product balances for gasoline and gasoil were little changed, while kerosene stocks resumed building. Both gasoline and naphtha stocks drew to record lows. Refining margins remained good with cracks little changed.

Freight Market Outlook

Crude markets have been whipsawed recently by the sectarian civil war in Iraq and changing perceptions on the return of Libyan supplies to the market. Dated Brent prices increased by $6/B to $115/B following the June 10th fall of Mosul to ISIS insurgents. But as it became apparent that exports from Basrah were unlikely to be impacted while prospects for the return of Libyan supplies increased, the price of Dated Brent fell by more than $12 per barrel to $103/B with a steep contango structure at the front end of the forward price curve. This has prompted the opportunistic storage of crude on tankers and increased incentives for the movement of additional long-haul volumes out of the Atlantic Basin to Asia, causing a counter-seasonal rise in crude tanker rates in the Atlantic. For tanker operators there are double benefits with higher spot tanker rates and lower bunker prices, at least for the moment.

Strong Week for International LPG

Tightness in LPG supplies in Europe, particularly in butane, had prices bid up this week. European supply has tightened considerably on lower export volumes out of Russia, and refinery maintenance in Antwerp and the UK. Russian maintenance at gas processing plants has lowered prompt Russian output. Coaster sized parcels of butane in NWE ended the week 4% higher at $838/MT. Asian prices were also higher on strong demand -- as soaring VLGC freight rates have industrial consumers worried that supply will be impacted.

Ethanol Prices Decline

U.S. ethanol prices showed some strength early in the week ending July 11, but then resumed their recent descent, weighed down by rising inventories. Ethanol manufacturing cash margins improved for the second consecutive week, largely due to plunging corn costs.

Ethanol Output Up, but Inventories Down

U.S. ethanol output rebounded to 943 MB/D the week ending July 11, up from 927 MB/D during the holiday-shortened week ending July 4. Inventories declined by 341 thousand barrels to a four-week low 17.9 million.

Political Risk Scorecard

Concerns about potential further sanctions on Russia, along with Iraqi instability, will support prices next week.

The information above is part of PIRA Energy Group's weekly Energy Market Recap, which alerts readers to PIRA’s current analysis of energy markets around the world as well as the key economic and political factors driving those markets.

Oceaneering International, Inc. (NYSE: OII) has reported record quarterly earnings for the second quarter ended June 30, 2014.

On revenue of $927.4 million, Oceaneering generated net income of $110.3 million, or $1.02 per share. During the corresponding period in 2013, Oceaneering reported revenue of $820.4 million and net income of $98.8 million, or $0.91 per share.

Summary of Results
(in thousands, except per share amounts)

                             Three Months Ended                                                   Six Months Ended
                                   June 30,                         March 31,                              June 30,

                           2014             2013                     2014                           2014              2013

Revenue           $ 927,407      $ 820,372             $ 840,201                 $ 1,767,608      $ 1,538,924

Gross Margin       218,215        201,864                 189,491                      407,706           362,239

Income from Ops. 161,311       146,337              132,862                         294,173           254,627

Net Income         $ 110,295     $ 98,811              $ 91,225                     $ 201,520        $ 173,660

Diluted Earnings

Per Share (EPS)         $1.02         $0.91                    $0.84                            $1.86             $1.60

Year over year, quarterly EPS increased on profit improvements from Subsea Products, Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROV), and Subsea Projects. Sequentially, quarterly EPS rose on higher operating income principally from Subsea Products and Subsea Projects.

M. Kevin McEvoy, President and Chief Executive Officer, stated, "Our quarterly EPS was slightly above our guidance, and was up 21% over the first quarter of this year and 12% over the second quarter of 2013. EPS for the first half of 2014 was 16% higher than the first half of 2013. We achieved record quarterly operating income from Subsea Products, and for the first time Subsea Products operating income exceeded that of ROV.

"Our outlook for the second half of this year remains positive and unchanged overall from last quarter. Given this outlook and our year-to-date performance, we are narrowing our 2014 EPS guidance range to $3.95 to $4.05 from $3.90 to $4.10. Relative to the first half of 2014, we expect to generate higher income from each of our operating segments during the second half, led by ROV and Subsea Projects. We continue to forecast year-over-year operating income growth for all of our oilfield segments in 2014.

"Compared to the first quarter, Subsea Products operating income rose on the strength of increased revenue and profitability from tooling and subsea hardware. Subsea Products backlog at quarter end was $850 million, compared to our March 31 backlog of $894 million and $902 million one year ago. During the quarter we announced one large umbilical contract for offshore Indonesia.

"ROV operating income was essentially flat, as operating margin declined due to higher repair and maintenance expenses, unanticipated startup costs associated with placing new systems in service, and lower fleet utilization. Revenue grew on increases in days on hire and revenue per day on hire. During the quarter we put 13 new ROVs into service and retired 4. At the end of June we had 323 vehicles in our fleet, compared to 296 one year ago.
"During the second half of this year, we expect to place at least 13 new ROVs into service, and we have contracts for all of these. When these new vehicles are placed into service depends upon the actual commencement dates of new drilling rig and vessel project work. We now anticipate adding 40 or more new systems to our ROV fleet in 2014.

"Sequentially, Subsea Projects operating income increased largely as a result of adding a vessel, the Bourbon Evolution 803, to our Field Support Vessel Services contract with BP for work offshore Angola and a higher profit contribution from the Ocean Alliance in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. The Ocean Alliance was out of service for much of the first quarter undergoing a regulatory drydock inspection. Asset Integrity operating income improved slightly due to a seasonal increase in activity in Europe and the Caspian Sea area. Advanced Technologies operating income declined due to execution issues on certain U.S. Navy and industrial projects.

"For the third quarter of 2014, we are projecting EPS of $1.10 to $1.15. We expect sequential improvements in income from all of our operating business segments, led by ROVs.

"Our liquidity and projected cash flow provide us with ample resources to invest in Oceaneering's growth. At the end of the quarter, our balance sheet reflected $103 million of cash, $80 million of debt, and $2.2 billion of equity. During the quarter we generated EBITDA of $217 million, $403 million year to date, and for 2014 we anticipate generating at least $855 million.

"In June we increased our regular quarterly cash dividend by 23% to $0.27 from $0.22 per share. This underscores our continued confidence in Oceaneering's financial strength and future business prospects.

"Looking beyond 2014, we believe that the oil and gas industry will continue its investment in deepwater projects. Deepwater remains one of the best frontiers for adding large hydrocarbon reserves with high production flow rates at relatively low finding and development costs. With our existing assets and opportunities to add new assets, we are well positioned to supply a wide range of services and products to safely support the deepwater efforts of our customers."