GlobaldatabluelogoA bill for what is arguably the most liberal energy reform in Mexico to date presents an opportunity for ending an inertia situation that has surrounded the region's oil and gas industry for longer than necessary; however, a number of clarifications are required in the secondary laws that are due to be drafted and negotiated later in 2014, says an analyst with research and consulting firm GlobalData.

Adrian Lara, GlobalData's Lead Analyst covering Upstream Oil & Gas, states that while Mexico's energy reform introduces new arrangements, such as profit-sharing contracts, production-sharing contracts and licenses, the most ground-breaking aspect is the change in the Constitution that will allow private companies to participate in exploration and production (E&P) activities under specific contracting schemes.

However, as Lara says: "The changed law does not specify which type of contract will be applicable to the different types of hydrocarbon E&P. Industry observers and participants will therefore have to wait for the so-called secondary laws that will frame the fiscal terms for the new contracts.

"This additional information will allow for a more rigorous test in assessing the effectiveness of the 2013 energy reform. While it is still not decided when this fine print will be drafted and voted on, the second half of 2014 could be viewed as the best-case scenario."

Progress towards the current reforms began in August 2012, when a proposal for reforming Mexico's energy sector was submitted to Congress. This argued that the bulk of the region's remaining hydrocarbon reserves are located in challenging areas, both from geological and engineering perspectives, and that sophisticated and expensive technology is required to recover these reserves.

Furthermore, while Mexico's Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) possesses ample expertise in shallow waters, it lacks the experience needed for entering more complex projects located in offshore deep waters or onshore shale plays.

Lara continues: "Pemex's necessities, in a way, indicate ideal opportunities for private investment. Deepwater, shale and even shallow-water areas can benefit from different combinations of technology transfer, capital expenditure in E&P and managerial expertise."

A crucial test of Mexico's reforms will be the reaction of international oil companies when the first new opportunities are offered, which will depend to a great extent on what exactly is offered. In any case, Lara believes there is a long way to go before the approved reform materializes in new production, or has a significant effect on the wider Mexican economy through lower energy prices.

The analyst concludes: "For the time being, this reform seems to bring about the opportunity for ending Mexico's inertia situation. The most important point is that the bill's passage removes the barrier of the Constitution from a wide range of future reforms, allowing Mexico's energy sector to adapt to prevailing conditions in the future."

Comments to be attributed to Adrian Lara, GlobalData’s Lead Analyst covering Upstream Oil & Gas.

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NYC-based PIRA Energy Group reports that Aramco formula crude prices for February cut for Asia and Europe, but U.S. raised. In the U.S., crude leads stocks lower. Specifically, PIRA’s analysis of the oil market fundamentals has revealed the following:

Aramco Formula Crude Prices for February Cut for Asia and Europe, but U.S. Raised

Saudi Arabia's formula prices for February were recently released. Pricing adjustments for the key markers were lowered for the Asian and European destinations. The reductions for Asia were greatest on the lighter grades, though there was also a reduction in the Arab Heavy differential. European pricing while also reduced, was generally less aggressive than for Asia while the largest reduction was on the heaviest grades.

Crude Leads Stocks Lower

Total U.S. commercial inventories fell this past week with the entire decline occurring in crude oil. Product inventories increased marginally as crude runs stayed at an extremely high rate while reported demand fell on the week in large part because of the Christmas Holiday. For the same week last year, stocks fell so the year-on-year stock deficit narrowed.

U.S. Refinery Turnarounds, January

The first six months of 2014 are expected to experience above average turnaround related refinery downtime. This compares survey results from previous years and does not take into account the high level of unplanned events which occurred over the past several years and are quite likely to be experienced in the new year as well. For example, PIRA's U.S. Refinery Turnarounds survey published on December 31, 2012 expected an average planned crude unit downtime for the first half of 2013 of about 1.6 MMB/D, also the highest level for the five year period from 2009 to 2013. Actual outages turned out to be closer to 2.3 MMB/D.

Tanker Markets Exited 2013 On a High Note

Tanker markets exited 2013 on a high note, with rates in most crude trades hitting new highs for the year in December while exceeding earlier expectations by a wide margin. The recent seasonal improvement in tanker rates is a reflection of higher global refinery runs, which rebounded strongly from autumn maintenance, increasing by 3.8 MMB/D from October to December, with 2.4 MMB/D of the increase in the Atlantic Basin. Tanker markets in the Atlantic Basin also benefited from weather, and strike-related delays in December.

Tight U.S. Propane Market and Looser Overseas Conditions

U.S. propane storage continues to fall to record low levels, with PADD II especially low.  The extremely cold weather is causing production and logistical bottlenecks as well, and, of course pulling demand higher.  The relatively warm weather overseas, especially in Europe, falling crude prices and the arrival of cargoes from the USGC and West Africa have been pulling international LPG prices lower.

U.S. Ethanol-Blended Gasoline Reaches a Record High

U.S. ethanol-blended gasoline production reached an all-time high during the week ending December 20. Ethanol prices were mostly higher in the holiday-shortened week ending December 27, and manufacturing margins rose for the first time in three weeks.

The information above is part of PIRA Energy Group's weekly Energy Market Recap, which alerts readers to PIRA’s current analysis of energy markets around the world as well as the key economic and political factors driving those markets.

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GlobaldatabluelogoOffshore blocks offered in Bangladesh's Bay of Bengal have attracted a disappointing level of interest from license-holders; however, anticipated improvements to the terms governing the country's oil and gas industry could entice investors, says research and consulting firm GlobalData.

According to the company's latest report*, only one extra bid is thought to have been received for the shallow-water blocks during the extension of Bangladesh's 2012 bidding round, adding to the three already received. As a result, more attractive fiscal terms are likely to be implemented in upcoming rounds, although the next one is unlikely to commence until 2015.
The fiscal terms for Bangladesh's deepwater blocks were amended significantly, with a number of new incentives, mid-round in 2013; however, no such improvements were applied to the terms for the shallow-water area, despite increasing demand for natural gas.

Jonathan Lacouture, GlobalData's Lead Analyst for the Asia-Pacific region, cites this lack of incentives as a reason for the low number of bids.

Bangladesh faces fierce competition from India and Myanmar for exploration investment in the Bay of Bengal,says the analyst. Incentives are needed to make the Bangladeshi blocks stand out, especially considering the substantial turnout which Myanmar recently experienced in its own licensing round."

Indeed, Bangladesh's upstream oil and gas sector is further clouded by ongoing uncertainty over the status of certain blocks in the shallow-water area. Following a clash with Myanmar over maritime boundaries, a similar dispute with India now remains unresolved, and arbitration on this dispute is not expected until June 2014.

Lacouture continues: If the ruling on this issue favors India, then it would threaten the integrity of the six offshore blocks on the western edge of the exclusive economic zone, which are currently claimed by Bangladesh. This arbitration means that the next bidding round will probably not happen until 2015 and the delay will only increase authorities urgency to attract investors."
Will Scargill, Fiscal Analyst for GlobalData, suggests that future incentives are most likely to be offered through either a higher-cost recovery limit, or an improved gas-pricing framework.
He says: "

Given the level of domestic demand, export provisions are unlikely to be offered. The 2008 model contract permitted exports, and it was precisely for this reason that there was a lot of political opposition to the contract."

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piraNYC-based PIRA Energy Group reports that the midcontinent fundamentals weakened in November. The U.S. is in a much tighter stock position than last year. In Japan, Japanese low crude imports draw stocks. Specifically, PIRA’s analysis of the oil market fundamentals has revealed the following:

Midcontinent Fundamentals Weaken in November

High crude stocks on the Gulf Coast led to a further disconnect between U.S. and foreign markets in November, with the Brent-LLS differential rising to a record $10/Bbl. Meanwhile, continuing surplus stocks in the western Canada corridor further depressed Canadian differentials. And with West Texas now pipeline-connected to the Gulf Coast, the weak LLS-WTI spread allowed Midland differentials to slip lower. However, by late November and early December fundamentals were improving and all differentials had strengthened, with LLS and Mars moving from contango into backwardation.

U.S. in Much Tighter Stock Position than Last Year

For the first time this year U.S. commercial oil inventories have fallen below last year. Crude stocks are 14 million barrels above last year, although from a commercially available stock position crude inventories are really comparable to last year because of new infrastructure. Overall product stocks are 16 million barrels below last year. The inventory deficit to last year should further widen next week. While there is a small stock deficit to last year, adjusted petroleum product demand (four week average) is running a huge 1.57 MMB/D, or 8.5%, higher than last year.

Japanese Low Crude Imports Draw Stocks

Runs continued rising post-turnaround, but crude imports moved lower resulting in a strong crude stock draw. Both gasoline and gasoil demand eased back with minor stock changes for both. Kerosene stocks posted strong build rate, but the kerosene yield relative to jet yield does not fall within expected norms, suggesting a data revision down the road.

Increased Saudi Formula Crude Prices for January Directionally Discourage Liftings

Saudi Arabia's formula prices for January were recently released. Many of the differentials against the key pricing benchmarks were raised for movements to the U.S, Europe, and Asia, though Asian premiums on Arab Heavy and Medium were lowered slightly. For the U.S. market, the higher January differentials for Arab Light/Medium/Heavy are the strongest ever seen since the adoption of ASCI as a marker in 2010. The overall changes to formula pricing for January will directionally discourage liftings.

Refinery Outages and Atlantic Basin Products

While growing product exports from high runs in the United States have received much of the attention recently, there has also been an ongoing need for more light product imports into Latin America and Africa. That import requirement is driven by growing demand but stagnant refinery capacity. It has been compounded by refinery outages at times. Last year disastrous fires in Venezuelan refineries cut refinery output. More recently there was a fire in the Brazilian 190 MB/D REPAR refinery on November 28. Although it was originally thought to come back on line by mid-December, reports are now suggesting that it will take longer, perhaps by end-month.

Atlantic Basin Surplus Crude

The growth in crude production in the Atlantic Basin will have a profound impact on regional crude supply/ demand balances. Crude production growth is being driven by the shale “revolution” in the United States and increased oil sands development in Canada. The Atlantic Basin is broadly defined as including the Americas, Europe, and Africa. Refinery runs in these countries have declined somewhat in recent years after peaking in 2005-2007, but they are expected to slowly resume growth with increases in the U.S. and Latin America more than offsetting declines in Europe. However, the projected growth in crude production is much greater than the increase in refinery runs. As a result a sizeable crude surplus will develop within the region and crude will be forced to seek markets elsewhere, primarily in the rapidly growing countries in Asia. 

The information above is part of PIRA Energy Group's weekly Energy Market Recap, which alerts readers to PIRA’s current analysis of energy markets around the world as well as the key economic and political factors driving those markets. 

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